金色财经|May 20, 2026 02:34
[Morgan Stanley: The Yen-to-Dollar Exchange Rate Faces Two Extreme Scenarios, June Could Be a Turning Point]
According to a report by Golden Finance on May 20, Alberto Tamura, head of Morgan Stanley's Japan operations, stated in an interview with Bloomberg Television that the Bank of Japan's policy actions will be the decisive factor for the yen's trajectory.
He pointed out that if the Bank of Japan fails to implement a rate hike in June, it will have a significant impact on the bond and foreign exchange markets. Due to uncertainty surrounding the policy path, the yen could follow two completely different trajectories in the future: either appreciating to 140 or depreciating to the 170 level, though he did not provide a specific timeframe.
Tamura said, "Some investors believe the Bank of Japan is already behind the curve, so taking action would be the first step." He also added that if global conditions stabilize, it could create an environment conducive to yen strengthening.
Despite the Japanese authorities reportedly intervening in the currency market multiple times since late April, the yen remains under pressure. The current market focus is on whether the Bank of Japan will adjust interest rates next month, while inflation and fiscal issues are also driving the sell-off of Japanese government bonds.
Tamura believes that the Japanese government does not want the yen to depreciate significantly further from its current level. As of the Tokyo morning session on May 20, the yen was trading at 159.04 yen per U.S. dollar.
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