It's a total mess—2026 is shaping up to be a perfect replay of 2022. War driving up oil prices, inflation making a comeback, and the 30-year Treasury yield breaking past 5%. The market was originally hoping the new Fed chair would step in and deliver two rate cuts. Well, forget about rate cuts now. Maintaining the status quo would already be a win, and if things go south, it might actually end up like the prediction markets are saying—with rate hikes instead. Don’t be fooled by how the U.S. stock market is still holding at high levels. If it crashes, it could happen in the blink of an eye. From now on, tread carefully.