The second round of inflation has once again become the biggest tail risk that institutions are concerned about According to the latest global fund manager survey by BofA, 40% of fund managers in May believed that "second round inflation" is currently the biggest tail risk, surpassing geopolitical conflicts and becoming the most concerning issue for institutions. Secondly, geographical conflict is 20%, bond yield rises by 18% in disorder, AI foam is 11%, and private credit risk is 6%. This indicates that the risk profile of the market has changed. Last month, the market was most concerned about geopolitical conflicts, as wars, straits, oil supply, and shipping safety all directly affect risk appetite. But now institutions are concerned that the conflict will push up energy prices again, and the rise in energy prices will re-enter inflation data. The rise in inflation will force the Federal Reserve to continue maintaining high interest rates, and even cause long-term US bond yields to continue to rise. Because once the second round of inflation occurs, the Federal Reserve will have less room to cut interest rates, which may trigger a recession. High interest rates will make it difficult for businesses to obtain financing and exacerbate the US fiscal deficit. If inflation rises again, the Federal Reserve cannot cut interest rates quickly. If the Federal Reserve cannot cut interest rates, short-term interest rates will remain high. If the fiscal deficit continues to expand and the pressure on US bond supply continues to rise, it will be difficult for long-term yields to come down. The final result is that the market is facing a situation of high inflation, high interest rates, high financing costs, and high fiscal pressure simultaneously. This is even worse for the already insufficient liquidity. And the biggest problem with BTC currently is liquidity. If the market enters a second round of inflation, it is almost impossible for Bitcoin to break out of its independent upward trend. The main cause of the second round of inflation at present is the Strait of Hormuz.