Murphy
Murphy|May 19, 2026 08:49
The wider adoption of structured derivatives in this cycle has made the options market much larger than before, and in many cases has even become a key driver affecting the market and trends. Compared to OI (open interest) which only tells us how many contracts are at a certain exercise price, net premium is the amount paid by the buyer minus the amount received by the seller, and the resulting figure represents the net direction of funds. Through observation, we can observe a peculiar phenomenon: many times, when the price rebounds to the "negative premium area" (red area in the graph), support/resistance will be generated. Is this a coincidence? Of course not! Behind it is the result of the combined effect of market maker hedging mechanism and passive behavior of option sellers. (Considering that many friends are not concerned about the logical analysis of Shen Chang, so I put it in the "subscription area") From the structure in the graph, it can be seen that the area below the current BTC price is continuously showing a "red" zone, which is the cumulative result of the market's net put sales in this range. The seller of Put bets that the price will not fall below this range, or is willing to buy spot goods here. Of course, this does not necessarily mean that this correction will stop here, even though it has been the case in previous times. But it can be said that the probability is not small, after all, traders and institutions have already expressed their attitudes with real money.
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