A deep analysis of SpaceX's super IPO in one picture 01. Listing time According to Reuters on May 16, 2026, SpaceX has significantly advanced its IPO plan: the issuance price will be determined on June 11, and it will officially land on NASDAQ on June 12, nearly two weeks ahead of the original plan. This will become one of the largest IPOs in history, expected to raise $25-75 billion and target a valuation of $1.5-1.75 trillion, with the potential to challenge the $2 trillion mark. 02. Valuation Evolution and Core Drivers SpaceX valuation has shown explosive growth in the past decade: Only $12 billion in 2015 (supported by early-stage entrepreneurship and DARPA) Jumping to $100 billion in 2021 (achieving profitability+Starlink launch) Reached $350 billion by December 2024 (Starlink user explosion growth) By December 2025, it will further climb to $800 billion (with ample liquidity and performance realization); By June 2026, it had reached $1.75 trillion, mainly due to the "main channel narrative" and scarcity premium. Starlink is the absolute core, contributing 50% -80% of the company's revenue, with over 10 million global users (as of February 2026), and an EBITDA profit margin of up to 63%, far exceeding Google and Meta. It provides services for billions of people around the world without stable Internet access, and has strong infrastructure attributes and competitive barriers. In terms of rocket business, Starship's reusable technology continues to mature, and NASA and military contracts are stable, providing support for future Mars exploration and interstellar transportation. SpaceX has transformed into a satellite Internet plus space infrastructure platform. Starlink's high gross profit margin and growth make its valuation logic far beyond traditional aerospace stocks, more like a "space version of Amazon+telecom giant". Under the grand narrative of 'humanity becoming a multi planetary species', although the valuation of $1.75 trillion is radical, the scarcity premium is significantly reasonable. 03. IPO Advance and Special Arrangements The early listing is due to the accelerated SEC review and the booming market subscription (high transfer premiums for domestic large investors). The highlights of the issuance structure are prominent: retail investors hold up to 30% of the shares (compared to only 5-10% in regular IPOs), and Musk is optimistic about the faith and long-term holding intention of retail investors. At the same time, underwriters need to subscribe to the xAI Grok service and pay tens of millions of dollars in "entry fees" annually, reflecting the Musk ecosystem's closed loop. Potential risks of xAI merger The merger of xAI in February 2026 brings certain pressure: xAI is valued at $250 billion, but its revenue is low and it burns about $1 billion per month. All co founders have resigned. SpaceX's approximately $17.5 billion debt will be repaid through an IPO, which may affect short-term financial reports. The traditional valuation model is no longer effective here (with a market to sales ratio exceeding 100 times), and is referred to by market participants as having "no benchmark". XAI merger is a double-edged sword: it injects AI+edge computing narrative (track data center, Grok integrated Starlink) in front to improve the imagination space; Negative is a short-term financial drag. If Starlink and Starship continue to exceed expectations, the market is likely to accept them; Otherwise, the volatility will increase after listing. Investment observation perspective Positive side: the triple moat (rocket recycling technology, Starlink low orbit network, government contract) has a high ceiling of long-term growth, covering global Internet popularization, space tourism, resource exploitation and even planetary colonization. Musk's execution and narrative abilities further enhance retail investor confidence. Risk points: high valuation execution pressure, regulatory and geopolitical challenges, xAI integration effects, as well as competition from Amazon Kuiper, China Starlink, and others. SpaceX's IPO is not only a company listing, but also a ticket to the human space age. It combines hard technology, infrastructure, and high growth stories, highlighting its scarcity in the AI+space boom. Suitable for investors who have a long-term outlook on space and technology trends, but experience significant short-term fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to the first financial report after listing and the progress of Starship testing.