Annie 所长|May 18, 2026 14:59
"Embracing the foam is the absolute safety margin of this era"
At present, the position of technology stocks is not low, and rushing in at this time can be considered a high-level takeover.
Many people have a fatal misconception about value investing, thinking that buying cheap goods that have fallen completely is what value investing is all about. But in the face of a disruptive super era, only value combined with high growth is the true investment. In professional terms, you should look at PEG instead of staring at static PE.
When we face an unprecedented technological singularity, many seemingly overvalued hard assets are actually digesting the current premium with future certainty.
Whether it is the construction of core computing power clusters in China or semiconductor leaders constantly breaking through in underlying technologies, the infrastructure demand driven by AI is unprecedented. Previously, semiconductors and storage were strong cyclical industries that would plummet after two or three years of growth. However, now due to the black hole effect of AI computing power, this strong cycle is being stretched and turned into a weak cycle with an extremely long duration.
The ruler of the old era cannot measure the map of the new era.
What you think is high is just a temporary hill. From a ten-year perspective, it is still the foot of the mountain.
Many people stare at the fluctuations of the market every day. Today, a certain KOL is bearish, and tomorrow, a Middle East conflict intensifies, which scares them to quickly clear their positions.
Since it is confirmed that this is a big era, it will not end hastily within three to five years.
In retrospect, the PC Internet era has gone for ten years, and the mobile Internet has gone for thirteen years. The disruptive nature of AI far surpasses both, with the former only reshaping information and consumption, while AI aims to reshape productivity in all industries!
This large-scale cycle starts at least 10 years.
It has only been a few years since the explosion of computing power, so why do you think it's already over?
On this long and snowy track, the biggest risk is not being trapped, but being thrown off the car.
Many people always want to do band trading, thinking that if there is too much increase, they will need to make a correction and wait until the correction is made before taking it back. But the reality is often that it only takes a slight step back and disappears, and you can no longer find the psychological price range to get on the car, ultimately completely emptying the entire era.
Investment is like a general rushing, don't chase after the little rabbit running out of the nearby grass. Grasping the main thread of the times is the only solution for ordinary people to counterattack.
The domestic market is an emotionally polarized market. On the premise that the underlying logic of this bull market has not been disrupted, every irrational panic plunge is an opportunity to give money, and we must overcome the biological instinct of not daring to buy during the plunge.
When market sentiment drops to freezing point, everyone is cursing, and trading volume is severely reduced, it is the perfect hitting point. Human nature tends to seek benefits and avoid harm. When you see a screen full of dark green, your first reaction is to run away. But if you agree that AI is the national destiny and beta of the next decade, and those high-quality core assets fall, why don't you buy it?
If you have prepared a sum of funds and are afraid of a major drop and dare not go all out, then buy one tenth. If you're still afraid, buy one percent. You can buy less, but you must overcome that fear through real trading and establish muscle memory of reverse chip taking in panic.
For ordinary people, if they really can't figure out the upstream and downstream of the industry chain and don't know whether to buy optical modules or liquid cooled servers, the simplest way to win is to invest in domestic pan technology core broad-based ETFs or semiconductor ETFs. Make elongating cycles your belief and use time to smooth out short-term fluctuations.
Opportunities are always reserved for those who remain at the table and are willing to constantly evolve.
Don't miss this great era, give it your all!
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