Multiple institutions warn of potential oil shortages in Europe by the end of this month

According to CNBC, multiple institutions have warned that global crude oil inventories are rapidly declining, and Europe may experience oil shortages before the end of this month. Inventory recovery may take until December 2027. Abaxx Commodity Exchange Executive Co Chairman Jeff Currie stated that the oil market appears stable on the surface, but the supply system is highly tense, and there is a "constant possibility" of physical shortages in Europe. He pointed out that as Memorial Day in the United States and the Spring Bank holiday in the United Kingdom approach, demand for diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuel will rapidly rise, and supply pressure may intensify. Analysts from Societe Generale stated that the current oil market maintains a "false sense of stability" and the underlying inventory and logistics systems are "extremely fragile". The report mentioned that since the escalation of the US Iran conflict on February 28th, the flow of the Strait of Hormuz has been restricted, and even if navigation resumes in early June, it will still take at least 52 days for the global supply chain to recover. If the recovery time is postponed to the end of June, global inventories may further deteriorate, and oil prices may rise to $150 per barrel and remain high throughout the year.