The wind of crude oil continues to blow~ Just now, CCTV News revealed that 'sources say the US has agreed to temporarily waive oil sanctions on Iran during negotiations'. The core logic of this message is actually that the United States is willing to use "limited oil exemptions" to advance negotiations. In the short-term priorities of the United States, lowering oil prices, stabilizing inflation, and stabilizing energy supply to allies may be higher than continuing to limit Iran's exports. Axios has previously reported that the White House is considering easing Iran's offshore oil sanctions to pressure oil prices; Reuters also reported that a previous exemption involved approximately 140 million barrels of oil, which later expired but was not renewed But this news is only from sources and has not yet been implemented, and it is a "temporary exemption during negotiations" rather than a "comprehensive lifting of sanctions". If we really need to look at three points: whether OFAC has issued a formal General License; Is the exemption scope for "oil already at sea" or "newly exported"; And whether Iran will simultaneously open up Hormuz and accept the conditions of the nuclear issue. So: 1. Observe as a risk of oil price decline and a signal of risk asset recovery, and do not rush to chase short. 2. If official documents are implemented, priority should be given to the relative direction of "air fuel/energy reduction, bullish aviation consumption, and QQ"; 3. If there are no OFAC documents or reverse statements from Iran/Israel within 24 hours, this is an easily reversible negotiation smokescreen