看不懂的SOL|May 18, 2026 11:16
Brothers, today is Monday, and the US stock market is about to open tonight.
Trump's visit to China has just ended, and the global market is still in the aftershock stage. Last Friday, there was a significant adjustment in the US stock market, which reflects the market's cautious pricing for the next stage of the game between China and the United States.
The continued geopolitical uncertainty, high oil prices, rising inflation expectations, and rising US bond yields are intertwined with multiple macro factors, making short-term sentiment still cautious.
Financial history has always been a portrayal of the long-term game between human nature pursuing profit and civilized rules. From the credit records on the Babylonian clay tablets, to the capital geography adventures of the Age of Discovery, to the crises and globalization waves of the 20th century, every major power policy shift and risk appetite fluctuation is accompanied by similar oscillations.
Short term unknowns and emotional fluctuations are the norm in the market. Extending the time to the ten-year dimension, the true drivers of the trend are always the evolution of credit foundations, economic structural adjustments, and technological trends. Raise the perspective, and the unknown will no longer be so heavy.
Several overall aspects worth paying attention to at the opening of the US stock market tonight:
The global transmission of the China US game and the degree of digestion of the results of China's visit to China will affect the market's repricing of trade rules, technological competition, and supply chain restructuring. This is not only a bilateral dialogue, but also an important indicator of the direction of global capital flows.
The macro anchoring of inflation and monetary policy, as well as the interaction between oil prices, yield curves, and inflation expectations, constitute the core variables of current global asset pricing. This week, statements from Federal Reserve officials, housing data, and employment indicators will be used by the market to test the sustainability of the monetary policy path.
3. The linkage between international capital flows and risk appetite, as well as indicators such as US bond yields, US dollar indices, and emerging market performance, will reflect the rebalancing of capital between safety and returns. The relative performance of defensive and cyclical sectors is also a natural reflection of macro emotional changes.
4. The resilience of long-term structural trends: Regardless of short-term fluctuations, the underlying demand for increased computing power, energy transformation, and enhanced supply chain resilience has not changed. These trends, like the major technological waves in the history of railway, power, Internet and so on, often surpass the disturbance of a single game in the end.
The market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. Tonight's opening is just a snapshot of the process of global rebalancing. Standing on a higher dimension, what we see is not isolated fluctuations, but the continuous interaction of credit system evolution, rule adjustment, and technological progress.
Extending the time scale naturally leads to a more composed mindset. The deep logic of the world's operation has never changed with just one opening.
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