Opinion: The "May Curse" of the US midterm elections may reappear, analysts warn of the risk of a significant decline in Bitcoin BlockBeats news, on May 18th, in the past two rounds of cryptocurrency bear markets, May of the US midterm election year was accompanied by a significant decline in Bitcoin: in May 2018, Bitcoin fell from nearly $10000 to about $7000; In May 2022, it fell from about $40000 to $28500, and then further dropped to $20000. Due to the fact that 2026 is also a bear market cycle and coincides with the US midterm election year, market concerns about a repeat of historical trends are heating up. Cryptocurrency analyst Merlijn Enkelaar said last Sunday, "This is the cruelest pattern in the history of Bitcoin. No one wants to listen, but this pattern is too perfect. In midterm election years, Bitcoin crashes every time." He believes that even if there are favorable factors in the current market such as the advancement of the CLARITY Act, the Trump administration's release of positive encryption policy signals, and potential trade agreements between the United States and China, it is not enough to completely change the historical cycle. In its view, if market sentiment further deteriorates, the price of Bitcoin may even drop to around $33000. At the same time, Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson is also cautious about the future. He stated that if Bitcoin continues to operate below $78000, the probability of the market entering a new round of "surrender style selling" will significantly increase, and the bearish forces have begun to emerge. Analysts believe that in the context of macro uncertainty, shrinking market leverage, and decreasing risk appetite of funds, Bitcoin's short-term trend may still face significant pressure.