xiyu
xiyu|5月 17, 2026 02:59
BTC Macro This Week: From 'Early Uptrend' Back to 'Accumulation Phase.' It’s not that the bull market is broken; it’s that the rebound leg got interrupted by PPI. Last week’s bullish outlook was based on three points: BTC holding above 80K, continuous ETF inflows, and FGI returning to neutral. This week, one and a half of those broke: BTC dropped back to 77.7K, FGI plunged from 47 to 27, and while ETFs are still seeing inflows, the pace has slowed. Current structure: Liquidity: Neutral Capital Flow: Smooth Protocol Supply & Demand: Neutral Narrative & Sentiment: Shaken The key takeaway: Capital flow is intact, but sentiment has taken a hit. No major ETF redemptions, stablecoins are still slightly increasing, and BTC balances on exchanges continue to decline. However, PPI has reignited inflation expectations, 10Y Treasury yields are rebounding, and BTC is hovering near miners’ cost lines. In the next 1-2 months, we’re likely to see a 72K-82K range-bound movement. Strategy: Stop adding positions and wait for May CPI data and leverage cleansing to play out. If BTC reclaims 80K + FGI returns to 40+, switch back to early uptrend mode. If it breaks below 72K, watch for miner capitulation and whether ETFs start seeing outflows.
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