Is BTC's 'mild winter' good or bad? Yesterday, I was chatting with some friends about the current market, and everyone felt that emotionally, this bear market doesn’t feel as terrifying as before. There’s none of that “WTF! BTC is a scam!” kind of despair. So, I did some data analysis and comparisons. I used the scale of realized losses on-chain (Entity-Adjusted Realized Loss, EARL) on days when BTC plummeted to reflect the market's level of panic and pain. In the 2018-2019 bear market, there were 3 instances of large-scale realized losses. In the 2022-2023 bear market, there were 4. But in this current bear market, there have only been 2 so far. However, the one on 2026.2.5 set a historical record, with losses reaching $3 billion (see Figure 1). So, is there no panic? That’s not true. It’s just that these bone-crushing market events have been fewer this time around. If we also consider the factor of BTC’s market cap being different in each cycle, the results become even clearer: In the 2018-2019 bear market, the 3 instances of large-scale realized losses accounted for roughly 3%-6% of the market cap at the time. In the 2022-2023 bear market, the 4 instances were also in this range (see Figure 2). But in this bear market, the two major drops accounted for just 0.11% and 0.24%, respectively. From this perspective, as BTC’s market cap has grown and its risk resistance has strengthened, the overall despair and pain experienced by investors is indeed the smallest in history. If we think of a bear market as the 'winter season' of the market, then 2018 and 2022 were 'harsh winters,' while 2026 can only be considered a 'mild winter.' According to natural laws, insufficient low temperatures in winter can disrupt the normal rhythm of plants, animals, pests, and water resources, leading to ecological imbalances. So, this time, BTC might also experience a more tangled and prolonged transition in this 'not quite bear, not quite bull' phase compared to previous cycles. This will greatly test traders’ patience and resilience. Perhaps leaving everything to time is the best choice...