It May Take $40 Oil to Curtail US Supply Surplus Plunging US demand vs. supply for crude has buffeted broad commodity prices for about two decades, underscoring a key force -- elasticity. Nearing a surplus of 8 million barrels a day in 2026, my graphic highlights that the only periods the downward demand vs. supply trend stalled in US and Canadian crude and liquid fuels came after price swoons to about $40 a barrel in 2009, 2016 and 2022. The over-100% 1H surge to near $120 a barrel in WTI -- about double the US break-even cost -- may suggest ample incentive to push the surplus toward 10 million barrels a day in 2028. The leader of the world's largest energy producer and a net exporter favors lower prices, there's an election in November and affordability is a top issue. My bias is December crude, at about $83, is more likely to move toward $50 than $100 by midterms. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/tev7y8kip3kk {BI COMD} #crudeoil #futures @BBGIntelligence(Mike McGlone)