
彼得兔|5月 16, 2026 05:32
A few days ago, some of the counterfeit short positions opened in the group have been taken down one after another, and there are still some positions that have not been released yet.
On May 9th, this wave gave direction and logic in advance in the group chat. Now that BTC has just fallen so much, there has been a flood of counterfeit stocks. I can't imagine what kind of decline it will have in the future.
From the perspective of the market, ETH broke through its low last night, and BTC is not optimistic either. After falling, it continued to sideways at a low level, which is not a good thing.
Tomorrow we will release a video specifically discussing BTC, ETH, and what exactly is going on in the counterfeit market.
Today, let's not discuss whether BTC has confirmed that 82850 is the endpoint of this rebound. Even if not, the overall trend of the counterfeit market is already very ugly. The largest knockoff ETH directly broke through, not to mention the trend of other small knockoffs.
The reason why I dared to open this batch of knockoff short orders in the group a few days ago is that many knockoffs seem to have rebounded a lot, but looking at the 4-hour and daily candlestick charts, you will find that the rebound has no volume. Without volume, it means no funds have entered, so the rise is contract driven and unsustainable.
Many altcoins are now stagnant when BTC rises, and if BTC falls slightly, it wishes to return to zero directly.
Sometimes the pace of trading is more important than the direction, and the problem with shanzhai now is not whether it has fallen enough, but whether there is any sign of taking over.
Falling by 80%, then falling by another 80%, then falling by 90%, and then continuing to cut in half, this is the cruelest part of shanzhai.
I have previously discussed the regulatory framework for encryption in the United States, and the CLARITY Act is not a lifesaver for all knockoffs. The clearer the regulatory boundaries, the more obvious the market stratification will be.
Something that can be regarded as a core asset, with stronger commodity attributes and better liquidity by the market, will be re priced by the market once the time is ripe. But a large number of small imitations that rely on stories, expectations, market making, and individual investors to take orders will be eliminated one by one in this cycle.
At this stage of the big wave of sand washing, I really don't have much desire to buy at the bottom of the shanzhai market. If you can do it in the short term, do it. If there is a profit from short positions, eat. If it falls below the support level, continue to buy.
If you really want to buy knockoffs, it's best to wait for the confirmation of BTC's major bottom level later, wait for liquidity to return, and wait for the market to have a new narrative.
I don't think this batch of empty orders can make money by chance, but by necessity. What the group has been doing recently is to find targets with weakened structures in advance instead of chasing after hot trends.
The most enjoyable state of trading is like this:
When others are still struggling with whether they are long or short, your short position has already increased in profit;
Others are still asking if they can still be free now? You are already considering where to put the bag.
This is rhythm, and it is also what I most want to establish with everyone. It's not just about being bullish or bearish, but about knowing when to take action, when to withdraw, and when to continue taking.