段王爷|5月 16, 2026 03:06
In the previous article discussing the controversy between ETH ASTEROID and SOL/BAGS ASTEROID, I took a perspective:
This is not simply a community tearing apart, but two assets competing for the main representation of the same world-class emotional narrative.
Today, let's continue discussing a more fundamental issue:
**The market value ceiling of meme is ultimately determined by liquidity. **
Many people understand memes and their first reaction is narrative.
Is the story good enough?
Is the emotion strong enough?
Do you have KOLs?
Who is more orthodox?
Who has a moral advantage?
Who can better represent this meme?
These are certainly important.
But if you only look at these, it's easy to overlook the most essential thing about memes:
**How high a meme can rise depends not only on how many people believe in it, but also on how much liquidity is willing to enter it. **
Narrative determines attention.
Liquidity determines the market value ceiling.
Without narrative, no one is watching.
Without liquidity, no matter how many people watch, it cannot become a large market value.
So a true meme must accomplish two things simultaneously:
Firstly, attract attention.
Secondly, to absorb liquidity.
Narrative solves the problem of 'why buy'.
Liquidity solves the problem of whether one can buy, whether they dare to buy, and whether they can come out after buying.
This is the most easily overlooked aspect when many people read memes.
A meme can have a great story, it can be very touching, it can be very contagious, but if the pool is not deep enough, the transactions are not large enough, there are not enough holders, and the exit channel is not smooth enough, its market value ceiling will be locked in.
Because real big money is not just about buying.
It is more concerned about:
Who will pick me up after I enter?
Can I add to the warehouse?
Will I raise the price too much by adding inventory?
Will I directly smash through the rim when selling?
Does this market have enough external liquidity to accommodate it?
So the essence of meme is not simply an emotional game.
It is:
**Attention asset+liquidity game. **
In the case of ETH ASTEROID and SOL/BAGS ASTEROID, it is very typical.
The advantages of the BAGS version are very obvious.
It has gained new narrative entry points: family recognition, authentic feelings, charitable structures, Liv Foundation, Solana high resilience.
These things make it no longer just an ordinary replica disk, but qualified to challenge ETH's main assets.
But why is the ETH version still the default main asset in the market?
It's not because its story is necessarily more touching, nor is it necessarily more morally correct.
But it is because it currently has a stronger liquidity carrying capacity.
A larger market value.
A deeper pool.
More holders.
Higher trading volume.
A more mature market mindset.
Stronger ability to receive funds.
This is the advantage of the main asset.
Many times, the main asset is not the one with the most complete story, but the one with the strongest liquidity.
Because the market will ultimately choose the carrier that is most capable of receiving funds.
Narratives can split, emotions can split, but true big funds will not be infinitely dispersed.
It will search for the place that can accommodate itself the most.
That's also why controversy suddenly erupted when the BAGS version surged to over 10% of the ETH version's market value.
Because it's not just rising.
It is testing something:
**Is the market willing to transfer a portion of ASTEROID's narrative liquidity to new assets. **
When it is below 3% or 5%, the ETH version can ignore it.
But when the BAGS version surged to over 10%, or even close to 15%, the market began to seriously discuss:
Is it just a branch?
Or is it a new narrative challenger?
Does it have the ability to handle new liquidity?
Will it lead to a dual asset structure in the ASTEROID narrative?
So, what the BAGS version really wants to prove is not 'I am more touching'.
What it wants to prove is:
**Not only do I have new narratives, but I can also attract and absorb liquidity. **
This is the core.
If BAGS only has family recognition and charitable fees, but cannot afford transactions, the pool is not deep enough, the growth of holders is stagnant, and funds only enter without leaving, then it is at most a high elasticity branch.
But if it can continue to improve liquidity, attract new capital, expand its holdings, and form transaction depth, then it may upgrade from an "emotional incremental asset" to a "main representative asset challenger".
This is the most authentic place in the meme world:
The story is responsible for opening the door.
Liquidity determines how far you can go.
One more point needs to be emphasized here:
**Market value is not liquidity. **
Many retail investors see a meme with a market value of 100M and think it really contains 100M US dollars.
No.
The market value of meme is essentially the product of the marginal transaction price multiplied by the total supply, which is an amplified result of liquidity.
A pool may only have a few million dollars in liquidity, but through continuous buying and price increases, it can display a market value of over a hundred million dollars.
So to determine whether a meme can really grow, we cannot just look at its market value.
To see:
How deep is the pool?
Is the trading volume genuine?
What is the sliding point of buying and selling?
Can large households enter and exit?
Did anyone answer the callback?
Has the number of holders continued to increase?
Can KOLs and communities bring in additional funding?
Is there CEX to undertake it?
Is there a larger exit channel?
These determine its true ceiling.
Many memes may appear to have a high market value, but in reality, their liquidity is very fragile.
This type of market maker can pull, but may not dare to continue to grow.
Because the higher the pull, the greater the book profit, but the more difficult it is to exit.
This involves the second layer of liquidity:
**The liquidity of the market environment. **
Liquidity is not just created by the market makers themselves.
The banker can pull the market, make the market, hire KOLs, create emotions, and maintain prices.
But if the entire market has no money, low risk appetite, shrinking on chain transactions, inactive retail investors, and insufficient CEX popularity, then even the strongest Zhuang will encounter a ceiling.
Because after reaching a certain height, no new funds came in.
At this point, the banker will face a practical problem:
Continue spending money to maintain consensus, or take advantage of the heat to start shipping?
That's why the same narrative has completely different market cap values in different market environments.
In a bull market, a strong narrative meme can be easily amplified.
In a weak market, even if the narrative is good, there may be no follow-up liquidity once it reaches a certain height.
It's not that the story is not good enough, but the market is running out of money.
So to determine the upper limit of a meme, three things must be considered simultaneously:
Firstly, is the narrative large enough.
Secondly, does the project have its own liquidity carrying capacity.
Thirdly, does the entire market have sufficient external liquidity.
These three are indispensable.
There is also a third layer, which is the least explained layer:
**The exit liquidity of the market maker. **
For retail investors, buying is the beginning.
But for the banker, withdrawal is the ultimate outcome.
The most important question when a banker operates a meme is not 'can I pull it up?'.
But rather:
How do I get out after I pull it up?
This is the core of all trading.
The exit channel determines whether the banker dares to increase the market value.
If one can only exit from the chain, the banker must be very cautious.
Due to the transparent opening on the chain and limited depth of the pool, large-scale sales are prone to directly impact the market.
In this situation, even if the banker has money, they may not dare to pull infinitely.
Because the higher the pull, the harder it is to exit.
If I could go to CEX, the situation would be different.
CEX can bring more users, larger transactions, more complex market making space, and also provide larger chip distribution scenarios for market makers.
If CEX can be applied to the head, the exit channel will be further expanded.
Because there will be more retail investors, more market makers, more arbitrage funds, and more passive liquidity coming in.
If there is still a contract market, the gameplay will be more complex.
Market makers can design more complex exit structures through spot trading, contracts, market making, hedging, funding rates, and emotional fluctuations.
So the truly strong Zhuang is not just about pulling the market.
A truly strong village will design entrances and exits with liquidity.
The entrance determines how funds come in.
Export determines how profits are realized.
That's also why when we look at memes, we can't just look at K-lines.
The K-line is just the result.
More importantly, look at:
Where does its liquidity come from?
Where does its liquidity go?
Who is taking over?
Who is distributing?
Has the banker exited the channel?
Does this platform have the ability to move from the blockchain to a larger trading platform?
Returning to ETH ASTEROID and SOL/BAGS ASTEROID.
The current advantage of the ETH version is not just narrative first, but it has already formed a stronger liquidity structure.
It has a more mature shareholder base, higher market awareness, and greater ability to undertake funds.
This means that if large funds want to participate in the ASTEROID narrative, the ETH version is still a more natural entry point.
To challenge ETH, the BAGS version must complete a liquidity migration.
It cannot rely solely on "family recognition" to continue telling stories.
It must make the market believe:
There is enough money coming in here.
There is a deep enough pool here to accommodate.
There are strong enough community connections here.
There is sufficient sustained external liquidity here.
There will be a bigger exit channel here in the future.
Otherwise, it can only be a high elasticity Beta, not the main asset.
So I believe that the war between ETH and BAGS may seem like a narrative war, but fundamentally it is a liquidity war.
Whoever can attract more funds to enter, whoever can make large funds dare to buy, hold, and increase their positions, will be closer to the main asset.
The competition for narrative pricing power among market makers will ultimately fall on liquidity.
Because there is no liquidity, no matter how good the narrative is, it cannot become a large market value.
This can be summarized into a formula:
**Meme market cap ceiling=narrative intensity x market liquidity x project carrying capacity x exit channel for market makers**
The narrative intensity determines how many people are willing to watch.
Market liquidity determines how much money can be invested.
The carrying capacity of a project determines whether funds can be received and retained.
The exit channel of the market maker determines whether the operator dares to expand the market.
If only one aspect is strong, it won't go far.
Only narrative, no fluidity, it's self indulgence.
Only liquidity, no narrative, it's a trading market.
Only pulling the market, without exiting, is the banker struggling on their own.
Only heat, no acceptance, it's a wave of flow.
The real big meme must be the resonance of the four.
So in the future, when judging a meme, don't just ask:
Is this story good?
Also ask:
How much liquidity can this story attract?
How much liquidity can this plate handle?
Does the banker have the ability to create liquidity?
Does the market environment support a higher market value?
Finally, where does the banker exit from?
This is a more fundamental perspective.
Meme does not simply rise through stories.
Stories are just sparks.
What really ignites the fire is liquidity.
And it is who can continuously introduce new fluidity and design the final exit channel that determines how long and how high this fire can burn.
So, in the meme market, narrative determines whether you can be seen or not.
But liquidity determines whether you can grow.
After writing this article, I will not express any further opinions on this matter. I will share my core thoughts on meme over the past few years through ASTEROID, hoping to be helpful to everyone. But ultimately it's just a family opinion, not investment advice.
Finally, I want to say to all meme players: we will eventually enter a stage of abundant liquidity, and at that time, it will be another market where wildflowers bloom.
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