陈剑Jason|May 16, 2026 01:01
Michael Saylor previously warned the market that he could not rule out the signal of selling BTC to optimize debt, which is highly likely related to the document submitted to the SEC yesterday. He will initiate the first-ever active repurchase of convertible bonds, repurchasing $1.5 billion of convertible bonds due in 2029 at a discounted price of $1.38 billion, and begin to move towards deleveraging to reduce debt risk. If the micro strategy does not repurchase, there will be three situations.
Firstly, if BTC experiences a significant increase in 2029, the stock price of Micro Strategy will also rise much higher than the conversion price. As a result, bondholders will choose to convert, and the company's debt will disappear without having to repay cash. However, the cost is the need to issue new stocks, leading to dilution of equity.
Secondly, assuming BTC is in a sideways trend and the stock price is weak and unattractive, investors are likely to demand cash repayment, which puts the micro strategy in an extremely awkward situation, squeezing out the remaining cash and even forcing it to sell BTC directly, thus causing a direct explosion.
But the real danger is that if BTC is still in a bear market and its stock price is much lower than the conversion price, investors will definitely demand cash repayment. However, because BTC's micro strategy of falling cannot raise more money to make up for it, the micro strategy of clearing BTC and repaying the money will be completely ruined, and everyone will die together.
So the micro strategy must take advantage of this small rebound in BTC to turn future uncertainty into present certainty, repurchase bonds in the hands of investors in advance, and even though discounts are applied, investors also receive cash in advance.
Returning to the first sentence, this also reflects Michael Saylor's earlier statement about selling BTC to optimize debt, because if the repurchase continues, the cash in the micro strategy account is difficult to support, so it is really possible to sell a portion of Bitcoin.
The question is whether to choose the lighter of the two harms, selling in advance now or being forced to sell in the future.
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