As a leading data platform in the industry, Glassnode's every research report is worth a look. But their statements and conclusions usually adhere to the principle of neutrality and are as unbiased as possible to avoid suspicion of being "investment advice". Therefore, personally, I tend to prioritize the process over the conclusion. For example, the latest issue of the weekly report released on May 13th was titled "A Rebound Without Confidence", which, as the name suggests, roughly means: This round of 6w~8w rebound is on the chain ETF、 The four clues of spot and derivative products are all improving. But compared to the start of the bull market in 23-25, the intensity of capital inflows is one order of magnitude lower. The core of this judgment is: capital inflow intensity - net position change of realized market value over 30 days (RC 30D NPC). The official statement is that in the last bull market, when each true main uptrend started, the 30D NPC would accelerate from $2 billion/month to $10 billion/month within a few weeks (Figure 1). And so far, the current rebound has only reached 2.8 billion US dollars per month, which is about 25-30% of the threshold for the main uptrend. Therefore, based on this judgment, it is more like a "structural repair" rather than a "confirmation of kinetic energy breakthrough", that is, it is not the state before the main uptrend started. This conclusion is consistent with our recent emphasis that 'it's not yet time to shout back'. Compared to this, we should actually pay more attention to another phenomenon - the emotional trend of funds. As we can see in Figure 2, in the latter half of the bear market, the 30D NPC remains below the zero axis for a long time, even with deep negative values. The more negative the value, the more pessimistic the sentiment of the funds. So there are three questions that are truly worth considering: 1. Why do 30D NPCs have long-term deep negative values in the second half of a bear market? 2. In bear markets, there are also rebound trends, but why can't 30D NPCs return above the zero axis? 3. What does it mean when 30D NPCs transition from long-term negative values to monthly positive growth of $2.8 billion? This is the true core password hidden in the Glassnode research report. By understanding these three questions (capital flow), many confusions can be easily resolved.