Today, the overall market weakened and the Korean stock market experienced a circuit breaker. Last night's tweet actually touched on the core logic. Let's talk about it again here: 1. It is problematic for oil prices, long-term bond yields, and stock markets to all move in the same direction. 2. The core driving force behind today's market weakness is the increase in long-term bond yields, with a focus on the 10-year US Treasury yield. 4.6% is a threshold for US10Y (see yesterday's tweet for details), and the higher the market goes, the more pressure can be felt. Yesterday, US10y was still at 4.4%, but today it has skyrocketed by 4.6%. 3. There are still many tools for the overall Ministry of Finance to suppress long-term bond yields: 1) The long-term bond repurchase plan has been disclosed in the refinancing plan for the second and third quarters; 2) Beisen himself comes from a background as a fund manager, and it is not difficult to collude with some bond market institutions to take action. There was actually a similar operation during the same period last year. See if Besent will make a move after returning to China next week and if he can hold onto the 4.6% threshold. 4. The most crucial factor is high oil prices The rise in oil prices has driven up inflation (the strength of the US CPI and PPI in March and April was largely due to the rebound of inflation caused by the rise in oil prices), which has naturally pushed up long-term bond yields and put pressure on the risk market. The underlying logic transmitted here Yesterday we talked about how high oil prices have persisted for too long, turning into an increasingly large grey rhino. Everyone can see the gray rhinoceros, but the fact that it is getting bigger is a problem and a risk. The oil price comes from the direction of the situation in Iran, and now it mainly depends on the negotiation direction: on the one hand, it depends on whether China intervenes. Yesterday, the White House said that China has agreed to mediate, but China's statement has not been released yet. It also depends on how China views it? On the other hand, it depends on who makes concessions and how much concessions the US and Iran make. 5. Yesterday, it was also suggested that partial profit taking is a good operation. If there is too much increase in profits, the funds will flow out and the long-term bond yields will rise, putting pressure on risky assets. However, it should also be noted that the current fundamentals are still very strong. Even if high oil prices and high long-term bond yields suppress the market, from a personal perspective, this will drive a small-scale adjustment of the US stock market. After the adjustment, it is still a good opportunity to get on board.