BIT Official: Bitcoin will significantly underperform Nasdaq from October 2025, as inflation rebounds and expectations of interest rate cuts retreat, suppressing the market According to Golden Finance, on May 15th, BIT Official released its weekly report stating that if Bitcoin could keep up with Nasdaq's rise, the current price should have been close to $140000. The relative underperformance of Bitcoin may be related to the resurgence of inflation since the third quarter of 2025. Overall, Bitcoin has generally followed Nasdaq's fluctuations before, but since October 2025, the divergence between the two has begun to widen significantly. At that time, the latest CPI reading had risen to 3.0%, 100 basis points higher than the Federal Reserve's target, and the interest rate market had gradually withdrawn some pricing for the 2026 rate cut. And this is precisely the source of the real pressure on Bitcoin. The logic of Bitcoin's rise relies on loose expectations from the Federal Reserve. Once the market starts to price a rate cut back, its performance often comes under pressure. Afterwards, this logic continued to influence the trend of Bitcoin. Stocks are completely different. As long as the market still sees inflation as mild and temporary, a rebound in inflation is actually beneficial for stocks: even if sales do not increase significantly, it can push up nominal income, reduce actual debt burden, and enhance the attractiveness of stocks as a purchasing power hedge. The latest released US inflation data seems to have caught some market participants off guard, although our model has previously suggested that price pressure may rebound again. The current key issue is whether this repricing of inflation expectations will weaken Bitcoin's sustained positive fundamentals; And in this context, how investors should adjust their positions next.