XAU Gold Market Analysis May 14, 2026.06 On March 1st, the high-level trend of Figure 1 was drawn and subsequently verified; On April 8th, it was announced that the first wave of rebound starting from 4100 is coming to an end, with normal strength following the blue path and strong strength following the red path. Even if it goes red, the endpoint of the first rebound is slightly higher than that of blue, and there will be a pullback in the future. The current trend is in line with expectations. What should we do next? Fundamentally speaking, gold is currently in an environment where "inflation hedging support" and "US dollar interest rate suppression" coexist. The US April CPI and PPI released in May both indicate that inflation remains sticky, which will limit the Fed's short-term interest rate cuts and temporarily suppress gold prices; However, the situation in the Middle East, fluctuating inflation, and central bank demand for gold purchases remain the underlying support for the medium-term trend of gold. Therefore, the current pullback of 4891 is more likely to be seen as an adjustment to the upward trend of 4100-4891, rather than a new decline that has already peaked at 4891. From a technical perspective, the overall idea is shown in Figure 3. Starting from 4100, it is seen as a three-stage rebound against the black short drop in Figure 3. Therefore, 4100-4891 is the first wave of rebound, and currently running is a callback against 4100-4891. After the callback ends, there is a high probability that there will be another rebound of the same level as 4100-4891. The callback that is currently running appears to be a horizontal strong consolidation (blue box in Figure 3). If it runs along this path, it will complete the adjustment and start the next upward trend after converging to the extreme; If the physical value of the 4-hour candlestick falls below 4600, caution should be exercised that it is not a horizontal consolidation, and there may still be a pullback endpoint below 4500. After confirming the validity of the red support range in the chart, gold will continue to rise.