BITWU.ETH 🔆|5月 13, 2026 03:06
Last night’s data drop: U.S. April CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year, hitting a nearly three-year high—inflation pressure is mounting!
Just looking at the data, forget rate cuts, even rate hikes might be back on the table.
Polymarket data reacted quickly, with the probability of *zero rate cuts* by the Fed throughout 2026 skyrocketing from 38% to 62%;
CME FedWatch also pushed the probability of maintaining rates in June to 97.6%.
Two key upcoming meetings to watch:
The June 17th Fed meeting and the June OPEC+ production cut meeting, both of which will shape inflation and interest rate trends for the second half of the year.
But, the *only* good news is—
The U.S. financial market is no longer following the TACO trade but has shifted to the NACHO trade (no chance of reopening the Hormuz Strait);
It’s laser-focused on the AI narrative, ignoring all non-recurring disturbances. So, it seems like after yesterday’s data release, major markets just pretended not to notice—barely any volatility!
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