The judgment of the endpoint 82860 of Bitcoin's fourth wave dead cat rebound has not changed, with a probability of 70-75%. The probability of choosing to construct a "double top to attract many" in the subsequent trend is as high as 45-50% From on chain data, we can see that BTC's funding rate has dropped to -0.0122% (extremely negative), and the amount of open contracts has decreased by 7.75% since the high point on May 5th. The decrease in OI and the absence of price collapse indicate that leveraged funds are actively withdrawing, not panic trampling. The extremely negative funding rate is also a double-edged sword - short positions are crowded, prices may rebound to clear some short positions, and then there is a real decline. 'Shrinking volume sideways' is the state of the past few days. After the CPI hit the ground, trading volume began to recover, and the market is choosing its direction, not the "calm before the storm", but "the storm has come, looking for direction". Based on the following signals, I predict that the probability of 82860 being the endpoint of the fourth wave dead cat rebound will still remain at 70-75%: (1) The price surged three times (82860 → 82350 → 82000), and the high point gradually decreased; (2) Divergence in ETF funds: BlackRock IBIT net outflow, Morgan Stanley MSBT net inflow; (3) The volume of open contracts continues to decline, and leveraged funds are withdrawing; But the price has not effectively fallen below 80000 and is still in the high turnover zone of the fourth wave. The probability of Bitcoin choosing to build a "double top lure" in the future is as high as 45-50%: The Clarity Act review (May 14th) was successfully passed, and the price pulse reached a second peak of 82000-83000 before falling back. Even if a pulse occurs, the height may be macroscopically suppressed below 83000, forming a "shrunken version" of the second top, which is the golden opening area for the layout of mid line short positions. Next, we will focus on two time windows: (1) May 14th: Clarity Act Senate review (short-term pulse catalyst); (2) May 15th: Powell steps down and Walsh takes over (historical patterns show a high probability of a pullback in US stocks after a change in leadership). The unexpected negative impact of CPI has landed, and prices have bottomed out and rebounded at the 80000 mark, easing short-term panic. But the judgment that 82860 is the endpoint of the fourth wave has not changed (probability 70-75%). If the Clarity Act catalyzes the pulse to 82000-83000 to form the second peak, it is the "money giving position" for empty orders, not chasing multiple positions. The price has rebounded from 79700 to 80200-80500, and the short-term direction is unclear. Wait until the Clarity Act is implemented and the direction is clear before taking action.