Phyrex|May 12, 2026 21:52
When WTI closed, it was already $102, and my current position has almost returned, and the liquidation price has also been adjusted back to over $120. I hope that those who short WTI or CLUSDT must pay attention to this. The probability of trading news is too high now, and if there is a short-term news event, the price may be pushed in. However, in the long run, I firmly believe that WTI will definitely fall.
Today, the US Energy Information Administration also released the latest information, stating that the end of May 2026 should be the time for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, mainly because beyond this time, the pressure on global oil will increase significantly. Iran may not only face the United States, and I personally support this judgment. Now, various signs indicate that even China is urging Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.
And from the CPI data released today, it can also be seen that inflation in the United States has not only risen sharply, but also exceeded expectations. The market feedback is quite poor, which has led to a decline in the US stock market. This means that the Federal Reserve needs to reconsider interest rate cuts. Even if Walsh successfully becomes the chairman of the Federal Reserve, he cannot directly cut interest rates in this situation. Therefore, I always believe that the rise in oil prices is limited, and the space for decline will be greater.
But the trouble is that if I short CLUSDT, the funding rate is a bit too high. Since opening positions last Sunday, my funding rate has exceeded 12%. I was talking about it yesterday, and I got it right. Today it's just a paper loss, and I don't even know how long I can sustain a short position.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, today's correction is still synchronized with the US stock market, and it is still the aftermath of the skyrocketing US CPI data. This situation is very normal. The continuous outbreak of AI has made many investors ignore the macro impact. This CPI data is likely to be a cold water, forcing investors to face the problem of rising oil prices again.
So the next rise and fall of BTC is very likely to be bound up with the problems of the United States and Iran. Trump's pressure has increased. This visit to China hopes to bring some good results back, especially that China can exert greater pressure on Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.
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