Attention to short sellers of WTI (CLUSDT) ‼️ The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) just released a set of data today, lowering its forecast for the average WTI crude oil price in 202 from $87.41 per barrel to $85.68 per barrel, and lowering its forecast for the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 from $96 per barrel to $94.85 per barrel. The current price of WTI is $102.39, and Brent's price is $107.81. Mainly because EAI believes that the Strait of Hormuz will resume traffic by the end of May. The concept of EAI is that the Strait of Hormuz has been essentially closed since the military operation began on February 28th, and by the end of May, it had been close to three months. This length of time is sufficient to cause a rapid decline in global inventory, refinery exchanges, shipping detours, and forced compression of Asian demand. That is to say, EAI did not obtain any internal documents stating that the Strait of Hormuz will definitely open by the end of May, but rather believed that the current global oil situation is not enough for Iran to continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz. To put it simply, if Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, more countries may join the boycott of Iran. China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Europe are not the ones who hope for the long-term closure of Hormuz. For Iran, blockading Hormuz can create pressure on oil prices, force the United States, Israel, and Gulf countries to bear costs, and also amplify its geopolitical leverage. But if the lockdown continues, more countries will shift from observing conflicts to being forced victims. At that time, Iran may not only face military pressure from the United States, but also diplomatic pressure, sanctions pressure, shipping pressure from more energy importing countries, and even larger scale maritime escort and military intervention. So Iran's short-term blockade of Hormuz is a deterrent. Long term blockade of Hormuz is turning itself from a bargaining chip into a common threat to global energy security. That's why EIA has set the end of May as a key time point. This is also why when WTI is above $100, once the war premium begins to loosen, the speed of price decline may be very fast.