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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|May 12, 2026 15:24
The US bond market crisis is intensifying. While everyone is focused on AI and the Iran War, the US bond market is in a complete meltdown. The 30Y Yield is now above 5.00% and the 10Y Yield is nearing the pivotal 4.50% level, which resulted in President Trump's "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025. Long-term yields are now ABOVE levels seen prior to Fed rate cuts in another brutal reminder that the Fed can not contain the long-end of the yield curve. At the current pace, we will likely see US mortgage rates rise back above 7.00% this year. The question then becomes: How much longer can markets (or the US government) ignore the yield crisis? And, who folds first?(The Kobeissi Letter)
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Timeline

May 12, 22:04The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97.1%.
May 12, 12:32April CPI inflation rate rose to 3.8%
May 08, 02:50The market is highly volatile, breaking below the 8K threshold.
May 05, 12:57U.S. energy exports hit record highs, oil prices surge due to Middle East conflict
May 05, 12:27The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield hovers around 5%.
May 05, 08:16The Federal Reserve injects $7.585 billion to stimulate the economy
May 04, 20:50Market sentiment is stable, and there is little fluctuation in US stocks and BTC.
May 04, 13:07U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent on the control of the Strait of Hormuz
May 03, 22:11The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 92.8%.
May 02, 18:16GDP growth was unexpectedly strong

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