The optimistic story on inflation has been that the recent firming has been tariff-led (which would show up in goods) and therefore won't be sustained as tariffs aren't going to ratchet higher year after year. The April CPI, in isolation, isn't kind to this narrative. Housing was +0.6% (it was expected to bounce, payback for low readings after the government shutdown). But core services excluding housing was +0.45%, the 3rd highest m/m change since Jan 2025. On a 12-month basis, the 3.3% reading is the highest since Feb. 2025. Core goods was +0.03% on the month (+1.13% on the year).(Nick Timiraos)