If March briefly gave the market a glimmer of hope in reducing inflation, then April's CPI data may continue to mercilessly remind traders that this inflation battle is far from over. I expect nominal CPI to increase by 0.6% month on month in April (although slightly lower than the 0.9% in March, it still far exceeds the comfort zone of the Federal Reserve); The core CPI is expected to rebound from 0.2% to 0.4%, further reinforcing concerns that underlying price pressures remain deeply rooted. The current market forecast range is extremely wide (0.4% to 0.8%), reflecting the huge uncertainty brought about by the collision between the volatile energy market and sticky service inflation. Bloomberg believes that the "hot" performance of April data may be somewhat misleading. The strengthening of core inflation is largely due to the technical correction made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to the data distortion caused by the government shutdown in October last year. After excluding rent adjustment factors, the core CPI may actually be only 0.24%. The optional consumer sectors, including hotels, car rentals, and tourism related services, are still in a "deflationary" state, continuing the trend after Trump's tariff policy in 2025. From a sub item perspective, due to BLS's six-month rotation sampling, the missing housing data from October last year will be concentrated in April. Expected equal rent (OER) and primary rent will rebound by 0.50% and 0.44% respectively, making housing inflation appear hotter than the actual trend. As oil prices are directly transmitted to aviation fuel, it is expected that air ticket prices will jump by 3% month on month in April. Second hand car prices are expected to decline by 0.4% due to the sluggish wholesale market, but car insurance rates are expected to maintain a sticky growth of 0.4% due to rising labor and maintenance costs. As for medical insurance, due to updated statistical methods, this sub item will record a significant decline of 1.5% per month in the next six months, but this is purely a statistical adjustment and will not affect the PCE indicator that the Federal Reserve values the most. (Analysis from Stephen Innes' research report released on May 12th, for reference only)