Goldman Sachs lowers its forecast for a US recession in the next 12 months, ruling that the impact of the Iran conflict is limited According to a report by Golden Finance on May 12th, Goldman Sachs Group's latest assessment suggests that the probability of the US economy falling into recession has decreased. Although the situation in Iran has not yet calmed down and the Strait of Hormuz continues to close, international oil prices have not surged significantly as predicted by some institutions. Coupled with the stable performance of core economic data such as US employment and domestic demand, the overall economic fundamentals remain resilient, and the actual impact of geopolitical events on the real economy is relatively limited. Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius officially lowered his recession forecast in an analysis report released on Monday. The bank has lowered the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months from 30% to 25%. The core reason is that the overall resilience of US economic activity has exceeded expectations, and the Goldman Sachs Financial Condition Index has fallen below pre war levels. The overall financial environment is becoming more relaxed, providing strong support for economic expansion. Employment data has become an important evidence of economic stability. The April non farm payroll report released last week showed that the United States added 115000 new jobs that month, far exceeding market expectations of 65000; The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.3%. In addition, multiple economic indicators confirm that the impact of the Iran War is generally mild and has not caused a significant drag on the US economy. Hatzius also listed multiple key data to support the judgment of lowering the probability of recession. Although the overall GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter of this year fell short of market expectations, private domestic sales maintained steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, reflecting the inherent resilience of domestic demand fundamentals.