The night of CPI data release for Bitcoin's long short battle! Most likely to rise and fall back! How to translate Three dimensional integrated system analysis: Bitcoin short-term and medium-term trend prediction and trading strategy (May 12th) Dear friends, at 8:30 pm Beijing time tonight, the CPI data for the United States will be released soon. On Thursday, there will be a Clarity Act review hearing and Trump's visit to China. In this turbulent time, the price of Bitcoin may fluctuate sharply up and down. 1、 What is the current market saying? From a daily perspective, there are several data points worth keeping an eye on: ✅ The price is narrowly adjusted around 81500, with a high point of 81757 and a low point of 81430; ✅ The daily trading volume was only 2957 units, a decline of over 99% from 1.34 million units on May 1st; ✅ The price is going sideways, the quantity is gone, and the buyer has disappeared; In the theory of natural trading, this is called "depletion of long positions". This is not 'reducing volume to stop the decline', it is' the tranquility before the storm '. The market is waiting for CPI data. Neither long nor short dare to move, no one wants to play first. 2、 On chain data and funding aspects ✅ The open interest volume (OI) continues to decline. Since the high point on May 5th, OI has decreased from $29.09 billion to $26.84 billion, a decrease of $2.255 billion or -7.75%. OI decline+price sideways, leveraged funds are retreating, not a structure poised for breakthrough. ✅ There is a differentiation in funding rates. The average 8-hour funding rate across the entire network is -0.00079% (negative value), but Binance and OKX have already turned positive (+0.0045% and+0.001%). Some markets have started to experience idle growth, but the overall network is still in the negative range. The divergence between long and short positions has widened. ✅ ETF net inflows for 6 consecutive weeks, but slowing down in the short term. Last week, there was a net inflow of $706 million, and institutions continued to buy, which is a medium-term bullish signal. But the inflow scale has fallen from the previous peak, not a "running entry". ✅ Mining companies continue to sell. MARA sold approximately $1.1 billion worth of Bitcoin in the first quarter to repay debts, and multiple mining companies continued to sell. There is sustained supply pressure above the market. 3、 Message side: Multiple variables intertwined, mid May is the key window ✅ The US Iran negotiations have suffered another setback. Trump officially rejected Iran's latest counter proposal, calling it "completely unacceptable". Brent crude oil is priced at $104 per barrel, while WTI crude oil is priced at $95-98 per barrel. The transmission chain from high oil prices to high inflation and the inability of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has never broken. ✅ CPI data to be released tonight, core catalyst. The market expects a month on month increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 3.7% for CPI in April; The core CPI increased by 0.3% month on month and 2.7% year-on-year. The year-on-year CPI in March was 3.3%, which is higher than the 2.4% in February, indicating a clear trend of inflation rebound. ✅ The Clarity Act will be reviewed on Thursday. On May 14th, the Senate Banking Committee held a review hearing, marking the first full committee vote in the United States on comprehensive cryptocurrency market structure legislation. If successfully passed, it may become a short-term pulse catalyst (second top attraction); If obstructed, short-term emotions will be suppressed. 4、 What is the technical aspect saying ✅ The daily contraction is sideways, the K-line is extremely small, and the upper and lower shadows are very short. The price is around 81500, and the trading volume has shrunk to 2957 pieces, which is a typical "volume reduction waiting" pattern. ✅ 82300-82800 is a strong resistance zone. Front high area+0.618 Fibonacci resistance. If there is no breakthrough in volume, it is highly likely to remain sideways or experience a downward correction. ✅ The entrusted selling amounts on the order book are gradually accumulating and increasing, and the main force of bears has not yet entered the market, but some bears have already deployed their troops. Key positions: -Strong resistance: 82300-82800 -Current price: 81500 -Short term support: 80000-80500 -Key support: 79000-79500 5、 Next three trends of Bitcoin ✅ Trend 1: CPI exceeds expectations and leans towards hawks (probability 45-50%) The rebound in inflation strengthens the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, with prices falling directly to 80000-80500. If it falls below 80000, further test 79000-79500. ✅ Trend 2: CPI meets expectations (probability 30-35%) The bad news has been digested, with prices fluctuating between 80500-82000, awaiting the Clarity Act review results on May 14th. ✅ Trend 3: CPI lower than expected (probability 15-20%) In the short term, boosting sentiment, the price pulse reached 82000-83000, forming a second peak, and then fell back. This is a 'double top lure' scenario, with the second top being the gold opening area for short positions. 6、 Trading strategy, for reference only, not investment advice ✅ Current operation: Before the CPI is implemented, do not open positions or bet on direction. ✅ Long conditions: This is just a short-term long strategy, with prices stabilizing in the 79000-79500 range and light positions testing long positions. Stop loss 78500, target 81500-82000. ✅ Short selling conditions: When the price rebounds to 82000-83500 and a short signal appears, place mid line short orders in batches and stop loss 86000. ✅ Mid line empty order layout: 82000-84500 batch pending orders, with a unified stop loss of 86000. The first goal is 78000-79000, the second goal is 74000-75000, and the ultimate goal is 45000-50000. 7、 Core Mind Art Reminder The trading volume has shrunk to 2957 pieces, and buying orders have basically disappeared. OI continues to decline by 7.75%, and leveraged funds are withdrawing. 82300-82800 is a strong resistance zone. If the CPI is lower than expected, the price may pulse to form a second peak in this region, which is a "money giving level" for short positions, not chasing multiple positions. Before the CPI is implemented, do not open positions or bet on direction.