Since Bitcoin fell below MA200 in November last year, it has entered a bear market downtrend and is currently testing its first rebound against price 82036 Referring to the historical bull bear pattern: In bear markets, MA200 rarely breaks through directly during the first test, and often requires two or three tests to break through. The probability of effectively breaking through 82036 this time is extremely low, and the probability of a sharp decline is even greater. It is in the countdown stage of a sharp decline. The upward trend that started at the end of March has lasted for more than 40 days, with no significant pullback in the middle. The upward slope continues to increase, indicating a frenzy at the end of the market. Retail investors' pursuit of higher prices is heating up, and it is not a true strong signal, but a limit induced bullish trend