The main force of BTC bears has not yet entered the market, don't rush to short the middle line yet Let me share with you a core fact of the current market: the main force of BTC bears has not yet entered the market! Why do you say that? We look at the quantity and data: (1) The four hour level short position fluctuation curve: From the low point of 60000 on February 6th until now, the short position has been decreasing, although the long position has also been decreasing. Now, both long and short positions are oscillating and grinding slightly above 80000, as shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2. (2) On the order book, after the price rebounded to over 80000 yuan, there was no continuous accumulation of super large amount pending orders for the entrusted selling amount, only small orders were pending, as shown in Figure 3. Although there is a selling pressure wall in the range of 82000-84000, the bearish main force has not actively smashed the market. Selling is a passive hanging of orders, not an active selling. The bearish main force is "guarding", not "attacking". (3) In the past month, the overall net inflow of ETF institutions has been greater than the net outflow, as shown in Figure 4. What does' bearish main force not entering the market 'mean? This means that the current rise and fall in prices are not caused by the bears themselves. Rising is because the bears did not stop; The decline is due to the inability of bulls to push forward. This is not a battle between long and short, it's a multi-party self-directed and self performed, self pulled and self sung. On May 7th, it surged to 82860 and then fell sharply by more than $2000, indicating that the fuel for "short covering" had been burned out, not that short positions had entered the market to pressure the market. 130000 people liquidated their positions, and 510 million US dollars were wiped out, but it was not the bears who really hit the market, but the bulls who chased after the high who squeezed themselves out. So, what are the implications of 'the main bearish force not entering the market' for future trends? Firstly, the main bearish force has not yet entered the market, which means that the real 'smashing' has not yet begun. The current decline is only a natural retreat caused by the exhaustion of bulls, not an active harvest by bears. So, in the short term, it is not recommended to immediately short Bitcoin in the middle line. We need to wait for the main force of bears to truly enter the market, and then we will join together to attack. The downward trend will be much greater than it is now. This is much more comfortable! Secondly, what are the main bearish forces waiting for? Waiting for CPI data (May 13th), waiting for bulls to finish their last breath, waiting for prices to rebound to their hanging positions in the 82000-84000 range. Thirdly, the current price behavior is essentially a bullish internal competition, not a long short game. The long position can shrink from 40000 to 50000 pieces to several thousand pieces, and the price can still hold around 81000, indicating that the bears have not taken action. Once the bears take action, the support levels below 79000, 78000, and 76000 will be pierced like paper. Based on the above in-depth analysis, although I predict that the bullish potential of Bitcoin is declining and a deep bear is approaching, the bulls have not completely exhausted yet. They are still struggling to the death, and the main force of bears has not truly entered the market. We still need to patiently wait for the CPI data to land and bear signals, and then follow the main force of bears to layout mid line short positions together. By then, we will achieve twice the result with half the effort. Remember my words, don't rush to short Bitcoin right away, you can't eat hot tofu in a hurry!