**[Analysis: ETH/BTC Continues Weakening, Breaks Key Moving Average; Analysts Warn of Potential 40% Downside]** Odaily Planet Daily News – Over the past year, ETH/BTC has cumulatively declined by more than 35%, with the market structure continuing to weaken, raising concerns about further downside risks. Analysts point out that the ETH/BTC trend remains suppressed by a multi-year descending trendline, which has repeatedly limited rebounds since 2022 and was accompanied by nearly a 70% retracement during the 2024–2025 cycle. Currently, ETH/BTC faced rejection after rebounding in August 2025 to the confluence zone of the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the 50-month moving average, subsequently breaking below the support of the 20-month moving average, indicating sustained selling pressure dominance. Technical models suggest that if the weakness persists, the next key support level may target approximately 0.0176 BTC, representing about 40% downside from current levels and approaching the 2020 cycle low region. On-chain data shows that ETH reserves on Binance have continued to rise, reaching approximately 3.62 million ETH as of May, accounting for about 24.6% of total exchange holdings, indicating increased potential selling pressure. In contrast, Bitcoin exchange reserves have continued to decline, reflecting tightening BTC liquidity and stronger holding sentiment. Analysts believe this divergence reinforces ETH's relatively weak market structure. Meanwhile, on the narrative front, the "ultrasound money" narrative for ETH has cooled, while Bitcoin continues to benefit from institutional allocations and corporate holdings demand, putting ETH under pressure both in terms of capital flows and market narratives. (Cointelegraph)