Quantitative energy structure warning: The kinetic energy of the bulls is declining, and the window for changing gears is opening. It's time to prepare to take action Hey guys, good now! I have been observing the trading volume, volume, structure, and trend of Bitcoin. The 4-hour trading volume has shrunk from 50000 to less than 4000, a decrease of over 90%. This may be related to the weekend market comparison list, but the daily trading volume has indeed been shrinking in recent days. The price hasn't dropped much, the quantity is gone for now. This is not about 'reducing volume to stop the decline', this is about buying gradually disappearing. It is not yet the best time to lay out mid line short positions, nor is it suitable for frequent opening of positions for short-term trading. Why? Because both long and short sides are waiting, waiting for a CPI data, waiting for a time window, waiting for a resonance signal! Big funds dare not move, small funds dare not move, they are all waiting. It seems calm, but in fact, there are hidden waves surging, and big changes are about to appear! First layer: Quantitative energy - multi cycle resonance failure The daily trading volume plummeted from 1.34 million to 712, a contraction of over 99%. The 4-hour bullish energy fluctuation curve gradually decreases, as shown in Figure 1. In the theory of natural transactions, there is a saying: quantity is the forerunner, price is the follower. The decline in quantity and energy means that the trend turning point is not far away. How many major price fluctuations did this combination of "price sideways+volume freezing point" occur before in history? Before May 2021 and May 2022, both had similar structures. Will it happen again this time? I think there is a high probability that it will! Second layer: On chain data - institutional differences, not one-sided The weekly net inflow was $1.105 billion (the highest in four months), but the daily net outflow continued. BlackRock IBIT is still buying (May 8th+23.14 million US dollars), while Fidelity FBTC is running (-38.95 million US dollars), as shown in Figure 2. It's not 'the institution has run away', it's' the institution is fighting '. Which side should retail investors stand on? Historical data tells us that when institutions have disagreements, the market often chooses the direction with the least resistance - downward. Layer 3: Structure - Morphology of the Fourth Wave From the February low of 60000 to the May high of 82860, the fourth wave of rebound has been running for over 90 days (the second wave only lasted for 60 days), as shown in Figure 3. This is not a normal rebound cycle, it is a consumption war of "time for space". The upward channel has reached its end, and prices are repeatedly blocked near the upper track of the channel. The deduction chart points to 82860 as the endpoint, and the actual trend is precisely blocked at 82860. It's not a coincidence, it's the structure speaking. Fourth layer: Variable disk window - not 'will it change', but 'when will it change'? On May 7th, after reaching a high of 82860, it plummeted by over $2000, with 130000 people selling out and a total amount of $510 million. This is not a 'normal callback', this is a rehearsal for 'long short double kill'. The Fibonacci trend time 2.0 node points to May 12-16. The CPI data is the trigger, but before the trigger is pulled, the market is already experiencing severe fluctuations. Key milestones for the next week: CPI on May 13th, window period from May 14th to 16th, and minutes of the Bank of Japan meeting on May 22nd. Level 5: Four Reminders for Ordinary Traders Firstly, focus on a price range: 81500-83000 is the mid line short position layout area. The price is not up to par, be cautious when opening positions. Secondly, focus on a time window: May 12-16. Before the CPI data is released, do not bet on the direction. Thirdly, waiting for verification of the architecture: The confirmation signals for the two trends are different - the bearish path shows a drop below 79000, while the double top path shows a rebound above 82000, indicating a bearish signal. Fourth, do not rush or take on orders. Batch layout, strict stop loss. Mid line short orders have a unified stop loss of 86000. Finally, a condensed sentence is sent: Volume is declining, positive news is blunting, Japan's interest rate hike is imminent, and there is no hope for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Waiting for the window to open and the bearish signal, it's time to get ready to take action! ---Mr. Xiaolong, May 10, 2026