AI - BTC (3) The third branch in BTC has developed a system for on chain analysis. Connected to the API of GlassNode... (expensive) Anyway, I subscribed to various on chain analyst research reports for a long time, so I distilled a copy of the on chain analyst .. Here are two versions based on this week's market trends ... can be compared Have you seen anyone's shadow? Version 1, see Figures 1 to 4 See version 2 below BTC On Chain Status Briefing One sentence conclusion BTC is currently near the key defensive line of multiple parties: on the chain, it has not turned bearish yet, but the price is too close to the short-term holder cost line. Multiple parties must push the price back to the range of 83000-85000 as soon as possible, otherwise it will change from a "support zone" to a "pressure zone". What is the current state? Now it's not a clear bull market acceleration, nor is it a confirmation of a bear market, but a defensive recovery phase. It can be understood as follows: -The average cost for many recent buyers is around $79100. -The current price is approximately $80000, only about 1% higher than this cost line. -This indicates that the market has just returned to the edge of 'no loss, no profit'. -If the price holds here, the emotions and structure can slowly recover. -If it falls below here again and cannot rebound, buyers will turn losses again in the near future, and selling pressure is likely to expand. So this is not 'multiple parties have already won', but 'multiple parties have temporarily held onto the most important line'. The most important price range The most critical areas at present are two regions: |Region | Meaning| | --- | --- | |78000-79100 | Multi party key defense line. Including True Market Mean and Short Term Holder Cost Line| |83300-84600 | The first important pressure zone above. There are denser chips here| |60500 | 200 week moving average, biased towards long-term bottom reference, currently far from current price| Simply put: **Hold on to '78k-79k', the market can still be repaired; Only by standing at 83k-85k can one truly become stronger. ** How to read on chain signals? On the positive side: -The net inflow of ETF in the past 7 days was approximately $1.43 billion, and on the 30th it was approximately $3.39 billion, indicating that there is still external capital absorption. -The supply of stablecoins is expanding, with USDT growing by approximately 3% on the 30th. -The funding rate is very low, with an annualized rate of about 0.32%, indicating that leverage is not significantly overheated. -Short term holders' SOPR is still slightly higher than '1', indicating that the overall amount of coins sold recently has not entered a significant loss selling phase. Places to be careful: -The price is only 1.1% higher than the cost of short-term holders, and the safety cushion is very thin. -STH-MVRV only has' 1.011 ', and buyers have almost just recouped their investment recently. -The difference between profitable and loss making sales is very small, with a realized profit/loss ratio of only 1.057. -The chip structure shows that the pressure above '83k-85k' is not light, and it cannot be said that the repair is complete until it stands back. -The accumulation trend score is 0.28, indicating that the overall accumulation is not yet significant. My judgment The current situation is more like: the key defense line after the decline has been successfully defended halfway, but the repair has not yet been completed. ** The most likely path is for BTC to continue oscillating between 78k-85k. As long as' 78k-79k 'does not break, the market still tends towards' shock repair'; But if it breaks and the rebound fails, we should be alert to the weakening of the on chain structure. Three paths Optimistic Path BTC has regained its position at 83k-85k, short-term holders continue to maintain profitability, ETFs continue to flow in, and the profit supply ratio has rebounded from the current 65%. This can indicate that the market has shifted from "defense" to "successful repair". Reference path The price continues to fluctuate around 78k-85k. It's not bad on the chain, but the buyer needs time to regain confidence. This stage is prone to recurrence and cannot be judged as a bull market recovery with just one rebound. risk path The price fell below 78k-79k, and then the rebound could not stand back. At the same time, the loss selling expanded, and STH-SOPR fell below 1. In this way, the cost line of buyers will become pressure in the near future, and the status will need to be lowered from "critical defense line" to "transition to bear market". What should we focus on next -Is' 78k-79k 'held. -Can 83k-85k stand up again. -Does STH-SOPR continue to be higher than '1'. -Has the realized loss suddenly magnified. -Does the ETF continue to generate net inflows. -Can the profit supply ratio be restored from 65%. The core meaning of this report is: * * The chain is not yet broken, but it has reached a position where it cannot be clearly lost anymore. **