BTC Evening Market Report - While the public is shouting for the bull to return quickly, ETF institutions are retreating! Is it a bit ironic? ✅ News: Expectations of US Iran peace talks support, but CPI is the ultimate variable! The US Iran peace talks are still ongoing, but local conflicts between the US and Iran continue, and the optimistic expectations of the ceasefire agreement in the market support risk sentiment. The core contradictions (nuclear issue, control over the strait, etc.) have not been resolved, and oil prices remain high. The real variable is the CPI data on May 13th. If the CPI in April is affected by high oil prices beyond expectations, inflation expectations will rise again, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates will be further postponed, which will be detrimental to risk assets; If CPI is within the expected range, optimism may continue. ✅ Strength of Quantity and Energy: (1) From the fluctuation curve of the long head volume in Figure 3, it can be seen that the long head volume is declining and the volume price deviates; The 4-hour closing was 80150, with a trading volume of 183000 pieces, which is significantly lower than the volume on May 5-6. The price reached a small high of 80287, but the trading volume did not increase synchronously, which is a typical deviation between volume and price. (2) From the candlestick chart in Figure 4, the daily level closed with a long upper shadow and a negative candlestick. On May 7th, the daily closing was 79883, with a high of 81680 and a low of 79462. The price surge of 816 in the 1980s has led to a significant decline, verifying the effectiveness of selling pressure in the 82000-83000 region. This is structural evidence that the fourth wave of rebound is coming to an end. The bullish structure at the daily level has not yet been broken, but it has weakened in the past 4 hours and is currently in a period of oscillation and correction in the short term. ✅ ETF fund flow: After 5 consecutive days of net inflows, it turned negative for the first time (see Figure 1). On May 7th, ETF data (key turning point): Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $277 million, marking the first net outflow after five consecutive days of net inflows. ✅ Order book data (see Figure 2): From the structure of the order book, the seller accumulates between 82000-84000, while the buyer passively takes over around 80000. 81500-82000 is the first short-term pressure zone, while 82500-83000 is a strong pressure zone. ✅ Follow up focus on signals: (1) May 13th CPI data: If it exceeds expectations and leans towards the eagle, it will be the catalyst for the fifth wave of decline; If lower than expected, it may provide a short-term boost; (2) ETF fund flow: If there is a continuous net outflow, further confirmation of institutional withdrawal; (3) Funding rate: If it continues to rebound and turn positive, the bearish fuel will be exhausted; (4) The entrusted selling amount on the order book: whether there is a situation of excessive amount and accumulation. ✅ Final market summary: (1) Short positions have not increased, the main force of short positions has not entered the market, long and short positions have shrunk, and both sides have entered a wait-and-see state; (2) The withdrawal of ETF institutions above 80000 indicates that there is significant pressure above 80000, and ETF institutions are not optimistic about the future market trend; (3) The bullish trend is declining, the fourth wave of dead cat rebound has come to an end, and the fifth wave of main downward trend is approaching; (4) The CPI data on May 13th will be the key catalyst for confirming the end of the fourth wave.