Let's talk about BTC tonight. The situation today is quite interesting. BTC surged above 82800 at the beginning of this week with Trump's "Project Freedom" and the news of the ceasefire in Hormuz, but that breakthrough did not hold steady. Today it fell directly back below 80000 and is currently hovering around 79500. In the past five days, about 250000 wallets have been cleared and left. CryptoQuant said that the number of people who have cashed in profits recently is the highest since December - from 60000 to 80000, a 37% increase in a month. It's normal for some people to want to take it in. On the macro side, the United States and Iran have once again been on fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude oil rising 7.5% to $103 at one point. Trump said the ceasefire is still in place, but the conflict has actually occurred. Global food prices have been rising for three consecutive months, and inflation expectations have risen again. The three major indexes of the US stock market closed down today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at -0.6% and the S&P at -0.4%. The Federal Reserve's Hammack once again made hawkish remarks, stating that interest rates will remain unchanged for a considerable period of time. A survey by the New York Federal Reserve shows that American households' inflation expectations for the next year have reached 3.6%. This is not very friendly to risky assets. But it's not entirely pessimistic. The S&P 500 call option set a historical record today with a nominal value of $2.6 trillion - if speculative frenzy continues, it will spill over into BTC. The BTC ETF did have a $1 billion inflow last week, but today it turned into a net outflow of $268 million. My judgment: Short term weakness. Breaking through 80000 and then falling back indicates that the selling pressure above is indeed heavy. The situation in Iran is fluctuating, oil prices are pushing up inflation, and the Federal Reserve is taking a tough stance. The conditions for a short-term upward breakthrough are not ripe. The key next step is to see if the 76000-78000 range can be maintained - if this range is maintained, it will still be a healthy correction, and if it is broken, it should be taken seriously. In the mid-term, I tend to be neutral. As long as ETF funds do not continue to flee and the US stock market does not collapse, below 80000 is a relatively good range of attention. If you want to take action, it's not too late to wait until the panic is released.