金十数据|May 08, 2026 07:35
Citi- Forecasts April NFP at -15K vs consensus +65K.- Expects unemployment rate to rise from 4.3% to 4.4%.- Says payroll volatility is increasingly being discounted by Fed officials.- Views weak payroll prints as less recessionary due to flat labor force growth.- Still expects three 25bp Fed cuts in September, October, and December.MUFG- Forecasts April NFP at +45K, slightly below consensus.- Expects unemployment rate to tick up to 4.4%.- Notes March job-loss contribution to unemployment was unusually negative and should normalize in April.- Believes oil and gasoline price shocks will have minimal near-term labor market impact.- Says broader economic shocks take time to feed into employment data.FOREX.com- Market consensus: +65K NFP, +0.3% m/m earnings, unemployment at 4.3%.- Leading indicators point to a potentially stronger print of 110K-150K.- Says the US labor market remains resilient despite AI concerns and geopolitical risks.- Notes the economy has averaged roughly 70K jobs added per month this year.- Expects continuation of the “low hire, low fire” labor market regime.FXStreet- Investors expect NFP to rise by 62K after March’s 178K increase.- Expects unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%.- Forecasts annual wage growth to rise to 3.8% from 3.5%.- Says markets are looking for signs of labor market stabilization after recent volatility.TD Securities- Forecasts NFP at +80K.- Expects +85K private payroll gains and -5K government job losses.- Sees healthcare and leisure & hospitality driving job growth.- Expects unemployment rate to stay at 4.3%.- Forecasts average hourly earnings at +0.2% m/m and 3.7% y/y.(金十数据)
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