Verification Framework for BTC Weekly Level 4th Wave Dead Cat Rebound Ending at 82860 Dear friends, on May 7th, Bitcoin surged to 82860 and then plummeted by over 2700 points, briefly falling below the 80000 mark. Multiple signals indicate that the fourth wave is approaching the finish line and ending, but we still need to wait for the following verification to confirm whether it is the highest rebound point of the weekly level fourth wave. 1、 The confirmed signals supporting the end of the fourth wave are as follows: (1) Quantity and energy structure: Daily trading volume continues to shrink, with a deviation between volume and price. This round of uptrend is driven by futures, with continuous negative buying in spot trading, and there has never been a bullish lead in the past 4 hours. (2) Capital flow: ETF inflows plummeted from 629 million to less than 50 million, a contraction of over 90%. Fidelity FBTC, Bitwise BITB, and Grayscale GBTC have been converted to net outflows. (3) Price structure: As we analyzed earlier, the area around 84500 is a strong resistance zone, and the probability of prices exceeding 84500 is very low; The price rose to 82860 on May 7th and then sharply fell, but has not recovered yet, and the high point is likely to have appeared. (4) On chain position: The short-term holder cost baseline of approximately 79100 has been breached. (5) Position structure: 88% of long positions were liquidated within 4 hours, with OI decreasing from 64 billion to approximately 60 billion, and funds are withdrawing. (6) Technical indicator: 4-hour MACD has formed a dead cross, with bears temporarily dominating. 2、 The signals to be verified are as follows: the time window for the key disk change is May 13-16. (1) Can the price rise to 83000: If it rebounds to around 83000 and is blocked from falling again, the endpoint of the fourth wave will be confirmed; If the volume breaks through and stabilizes at 84000, the fourth wave may extend to 84000-85000. (2) Can the trading volume be increased: A rebound with reduced volume is unsustainable and requires increased volume to confirm the effectiveness of the breakthrough. (3) Can ETF inflows continue: If they continue to shrink or turn negative, bullish support will further weaken. (4) Funding rate: Some exchanges have turned positive, and the net has narrowed from negative values. If it turns positive across the board, the bearish fuel will be depleted. (5) May 13th CPI data: high oil prices → high inflation → inability of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. If CPI exceeds expectations and becomes hawkish, it will be the catalyst for the fifth wave of decline. The final core conclusion is as follows: 82860 is highly likely to be the endpoint of the fourth wave, and the fifth wave of decline will only result in being late and not absent. But there is a top turnover zone between the fourth and fifth waves, and the price may fluctuate repeatedly between 80000-83000 for several days, completing the long short power conversion. Pay attention to the CPI data on May 13th, which may be the final trigger and key turning point window.