qinbafrank
qinbafrank|May 07, 2026 12:31
I have been looking at the rare earth field recently, and there are a few pieces of information: 1. In mid March, Australian company Lynas Rare Earths completed the first production of samarium oxide at its Malaysia factory ahead of schedule, which is a commercial grade "on spec" product, ahead of the original plan (in April). Lynas CEO Amanda Lacaze explicitly stated that this is the first successful separation/production of heavy rare earths outside of China in the past 20 years 2. The MP Materials (MP) heavy rare earth separation plan will begin debugging in mid-2026 and is currently in the preparation stage (with accumulated heavy rare earth concentrate inventory). It has not yet entered commercial production, but the progress is in line with the plan. This is its key milestone to support downstream magnet production. Light rare earth and magnet production: already in the commercial stage. The production of NdPr will reach a record high in 2025 and will continue to grow in 2026 (with a target annual operating rate of approximately 6000 tons of NdPr oxide). The Texas Independence Magnet Factory has started commercial production and will further ramp up in 2026; The "10X" new magnet factory (Northlake, Texas) has been selected and plans to start production in 2028, with a total magnet production capacity of 10000 tons per year (serving both defense and commercial purposes). 3. Production progress of USA Rare Earth (USAR): 1) Downstream processing and magnets: Stillwater (Oklahoma) metal alloy magnet factory has started initial commercial magnet production (early 2026), aiming to reach 600 tons/year by the end of 2026, double to 1200 tons/year by early 2027, and ultimately plan to exceed 10000 tons/year by 2029. The factory may currently rely on external imported raw materials until Round Top is put into operation 2) Round Top project (Texas, heavy rare earth enrichment mine): Colorado Hydromet demonstration plant starts operation (solvent extraction circuit), accelerating mining plan (AMP). Commercial production target by the end of 2028 (two years ahead of schedule). Overall: 1) MP is currently the most mature rare earth company in the United States (Mountain Pass mine is the only active large-scale mine), and the heavy rare earth part is still in the "imminent" stage, but the light rare earth/magnet chain has partially landed and received strong support from the Pentagon. 2) MP is closer to the production of heavy rare earth separation (mid-term commissioning in 2026), with mature mines and some magnet production capacity, and is currently the main force in the US supply chain. 3) The USA Rare Earth heavy rare earth mine is still under development (by the end of 2028), but downstream magnet factories have already started, adopting a "downstream first, then upstream" strategy. 4) Both have received funding and procurement support from the US government (Department of Defense and White House) with the aim of accelerating "de Sinicization", but truly replacing China on a large scale still takes 2-3 years, and initial production is relatively limited. Nowadays, the security supply chain is of paramount importance, and as the link that can most choke the United States, the development of the rare earth industry in the United States deserves attention. I personally prefer MP In China, Super Bull's scattered Zhang Jianping's explosive purchase of 3.4 billion yuan worth of northern rare earths in the first quarter has also attracted a lot of attention.
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