Xiao Bao Community Live Broadcast: Tonight's employment report may ignite or extinguish expectations of interest rate cuts

Click on the link to enter the meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/7277739262 According to the latest news, the core focus of the cryptocurrency industry today (May 8th) is on the initial jobless claims data in the United States and regulatory signals on the closing day of the Consensus conference. Tomorrow's key events 1. Data on initial jobless claims in the United States (8:30 pm Beijing time): ·Previous value: 189000 people; ·Expected value: 203000 people; ·Market impact: If the number of applicants exceeds expectations and increases, it means that the job market is cooling down, and the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's loose policies will rise, which will benefit risk assets such as cryptocurrencies; If the data is lower than expected, it may weaken the expectation of interest rate cuts and hinder the rebound 2. Consensus Conference Closing (May 5-7, Miami): ·Tomorrow's key event: SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and several other regulatory officials will give speeches; ·Market attention: Will further signals be released regarding the CLARITY Act or cryptocurrency regulation; ·Background: Ripple CEO warns at the conference that if the Senate does not take action in the next two weeks, the bill may be stalled due to midterm elections; Trend prediction and core logic: At present, the market is in a game of "institutional funding support" and "whale selling expectations+regulatory uncertainty": ·Positive support: continuous net inflow of spot ETFs, return of panic index to neutral (45), expectation of Federal Reserve easing; ·Negative pressure: Strategy's potential sell-off, on chain activity at a two-year low, and uncertainty in advancing the CLARITY bill; Scenario analysis: More than expected increase in initial application data (>205000)+no strategy selling news BTC testing 82000 resistance; Neutral data meets expectations (around 200000)+no new progress on the bill, with fluctuations at the 80000 mark; The bearish data is lower than expected (<195000)+regulatory release of hawkish signals returns to support 77000-78000; Key focus: 1. 8:30 pm Beijing time: US initial jobless claims data (expected to be 203000, previous value 189000); 2. Consensus Conference Closing: Will SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and other officials release regulatory signals; 3. Progress of the CLARITY Act: Has the Senate Banking Committee scheduled a review schedule; 4. RED token unlocking: Pay attention to the market acceptance after unlocking (approximately 5.5 million US dollars); Core conclusion: The biggest variables in tomorrow's market are still regulatory signals and employment data, which will jointly determine the short-term direction. If the initial application data is high and combined with regulatory hype, BTC is expected to continue its strong performance; If strong data suppresses expectations of interest rate cuts, the market may enter a period of volatile consolidation. Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.