[Analysis: Kalshi has not significantly outperformed traditional economists in U.S. nonfarm payroll predictions] Deep Tide TechFlow reports, on May 7, according to Bloomberg, academic research and Bloomberg data analysis indicate that the prediction market platform Kalshi has not significantly outperformed traditional economists in forecasting U.S. nonfarm payroll data. Over the past 33 months, the average error of Kalshi traders and Bloomberg-surveyed economists both exceeded 60,000 jobs, showing no statistical advantage. For example, in April 2026 data, when the U.S. nonfarm payrolls reported an increase of 178,000 jobs, Kalshi's final prediction error exceeded 90,000 jobs. Some Wall Street economists believe that prediction markets are more akin to "new-age gambling," with limited analytical value for deeper data such as employment structure.