
qinbafrank|May 07, 2026 09:16
The most important industry observation framework in the past six months is the increase and change in technology penetration rate, and trends are more important than valuations. This tweet in mid February should also be the most important consideration this year: AI may only need a shorter time to complete the 10 year journey of mobile Internet (while the same journey of the Internet has taken 20 or 30 years). We are in an era where new technologies are increasingly popular and penetrated. This is crucial and determines how you view the evolution and iteration of the AI wave.
What is the core?
The core is software PC Internet, mobile Internet, and now AI. Each generation of technology wave has laid a solid foundation for the next generation. The infrastructure is more perfect than before, and the penetration rate is naturally faster and faster. Penetration rate is the starting point of all commercialization, and there are two logics:
1) It's not a revolutionary technology, and the penetration rate simply cannot be achieved. 10% is a key gap towards the mainstream public;
2) The penetration rate continues to increase, the user base is getting larger, the paying group will also increase, and the per capita token consumption can also rise;
The core of the long silent period after the bursting of the Internet foam in 2000 is:
1) At that time, the penetration rate was still very low, and the key was that the increase in penetration rate was relatively slow, mainly because the infrastructure was not yet perfect;
2) Only in 2005 and 2006 did the Internet form a relatively complete business model (games, advertising, value-added services, e-commerce, etc.).
The current era is characterized by well-developed infrastructure, rapid information dissemination, and a comprehensive range of commercial methods.
Last September, Goldman Sachs reported that the penetration rate of AI in American companies was 10%. However, according to Goldman Sachs' latest report at the end of March, the penetration rate of AI in enterprises has reached 18%, indicating a rapid growth period.
Is this also from September last year at https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/1966309713211175233? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A: Technology stocks are essentially reaping the dividends of industry penetration, and trends are more important than valuations. Once the penetration rate reaches 10%, the slope of growth will increase sharply. I believe that in the past six months, everyone has felt a sense of acceleration being accelerated.
10% to nearly 50% is the golden period for investment.
Of course, if the penetration rate approaches 50% or even higher, it means that most companies and people are deeply embracing AI, so the dividends are getting smaller and smaller.
I recommend everyone to take a look at these two tweets from February and mid September of last year.