Tonight, both the US and Iran are making opposite statements as before to conceal their true intentions. Trump said that if Iran fulfills the "epic anger", it will end, and if it does not agree, it will continue bombing. Iran said that the contents of the memorandum are the United States' wish list, and they cannot obtain the negotiation table that cannot be obtained on the battlefield. Moreover, the US and Iran have only had limited indirect talks and have not yet reached the stage of face-to-face negotiations. Putting aside the statements of both sides, fundamentally speaking, the strait has not been unsealed, and the logic of buying long on dips in crude oil has not changed. Just where exactly this bargain hunting is' low 'needs to be adjusted according to the situation, and the price center needs to move upwards without further explanation. Tonight, it first fell to 88 and then quickly rebounded to 97, which can be said to be even stronger than the knockoff. Since the precedent of massive fluctuations was set by gold last year, the international financial market has undergone tremendous changes in its gameplay. Whether it is precious metals, crude oil, or large cap stocks in the US, they have fluctuated at unimaginable levels in the past. Even tens of millions of dollars worth of targets are afraid to see them fluctuate. The Iran War can only be seen as a temporary ceasefire between the two sides for time rather than an end. If we can win another 30 days of detente period, Trump's visit to China will be over by then, and Walsh's inauguration will be settled, so there will be more room for operation. Specifically, in terms of WTI prices, it can be compared to gold before. Gold touched 4100 during the first wave of decline, and only fell to 4500 during the second wave. The pancake also hit 60000 during its first panic decline, but only rebounded to 65k during its second. If there were no bigger bearish factors, such as the sudden unconditional opening of the strait and the return of navigation volume to pre war levels, it may be difficult for WTI prices to hit the 7-digit mark again. Even the previous 88 is now a good position looking back. It is better to go long than short for crude oil as a whole. Short selling is a counter trend operation with twice the effort until international supply and demand improve. Only in the early stages of easing the news can one take a risk, and it is not suitable for long-term gains. Whether this memorandum can be reached or not may still depend on Xiaoha's final decision. We also need to continue to observe whether there are any changes after the Iranian Foreign Minister's visit to China and return home. After all, the two major focuses of the strait and nuclear issue have been enough for both sides to play games for many years.