Phyrex|May 06, 2026 11:13
Every day feels like an extreme reversal. Just now, the whole internet was discussing the end of the war memorandum, and then Al Jazeera's Tehran correspondent Resul Serdar Atas reported that, according to sources, current negotiations with the U.S. are only focused on the Hormuz Strait phase, with no discussions on nuclear issues at this stage.
The source stated, 'They said everything else is fabricated, misleading media reports. They currently do not confirm that negotiations are taking place on nuclear issues, regional security policies, relations with allies, or Iran's missile program. They said these topics are not part of the current discussions and have been excluded.'
He mentioned that Iran proposed a three-phase plan, with the first 30 days solely focused on reopening the Hormuz Strait. If an agreement is reached, nuclear negotiations might begin, followed by regional security dialogues with neighboring countries.
If this is true, it seems my gut feeling yesterday was spot on. Both sides are being forced into phased negotiations due to the blockade—America because of high domestic oil prices, and Iran because the blockade has prevented oil exports. But regardless, resolving the Hormuz Strait issue first is a good thing.
Currently, WTI oil prices have temporarily dropped below $90, faster than I expected. Although the news might still carry some uncertainty, the Hormuz Strait is very likely the issue being addressed at this stage.
Continuing to short WTI, target price set at $85.
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