If the net profit and loss (NRPL) is above zero, it indicates that in the total realized value of the market, the realized profit is greater than the realized loss, indicating that the market has profitability. On the contrary, if it is below the zero axis, it indicates that BTC holders are dominated by selling at a loss and have completely lost their new 'hematopoietic function'. To understand the above logic, let's take a look at the annotations 1-3 in the picture, which depict the entire process of the Bitcoin cycle from "bull to bear → deep bear → bear to bull conversion → bull return". Stage 1: The NRPL gradually decreases until it becomes impossible to break through the zero axis in the later stage. Stage 2: The price is at a new low but the loss is not higher, and the panic market is cleared. Stage 3: NRPL gradually returns to above the zero axis and enters the bear bull transition period. So far, the "Stage 1" of this bear market is almost a replica of the previous cycle, and the process is also very similar. But the difference is that without the appearance of 'Stage 2', it jumps directly to 'Stage 3'. The gradual return of NRPL to the zero axis indicates that market profitability is recovering, which means there is new capital entering to undertake the previous profit realization. At the same time, BTC prices have also broken through the dual resistance of STH-RP and TMMP. From this perspective, we must objectively say that the current definition of stage should be 'gradually stepping out of the deep bear and entering the bear bull transition'. Even if there are events like the March 12th incident in 2020, it will not fundamentally change the direction of the overall trend. In the short term, we may not be able to predict the ups and downs, but looking at the longer term, 2026 will definitely be an unprecedented 'bear market cycle'.