土澳大狮兄BroLeon | Crypto | AI | Stocks
土澳大狮兄BroLeon | Crypto | AI | Stocks|May 06, 2026 01:02
This is the topic that I believe has the greatest impact on the cryptocurrency industry and has been discussed the most today: @Has Saylor given up on selling BTC? I think this matter needs to be viewed from two aspects, taking into account the context and time span of his live broadcast, rather than a simple black and white issue. Let's start with the short one: The sixth point in the live broadcast screenshot PPT, which is about selling BTC and causing a huge uproar, has a clear context - the first five points are all about how to increase BPS (Bitcoin Per Share), manage STRC demand, and reduce convertible bond risk. The sixth article "Sell BTC when advantageous" is placed in this framework, which means that when mNAV<1, selling BTC to repurchase MSTR stocks itself is an arbitrage operation to increase BPS. This is not giving up, it's math, it's stock based growth. Saylor is likely to use the same tone in the live broadcast. However, in the long run, this does open up a loophole: MSTR's persona has transformed from a BTC Ponzi black hole that only allows entry and cannot exit to a company that can manage its balance sheet. The 4% drop after trading was not due to concerns that Saylor was really going to crash the market, but rather because the premium belief was personally exposed by the official. For a long time, the most criticized thing of MSTR is the Pond's foam. This time, it is resolved, which is also a good credit, but at the cost of the downgrade of the valuation model. The short-term impact of this matter is limited, with negative emotions, but the magnitude is not significant because it will not sell immediately. In the mid-term, it can be considered a substantial bearish trend as it weakens one of the strongest structural buying forces in the past two years. It should be noted that there are not just MSTRs on the market, but hundreds of companies of all sizes who have learned from them to develop their BTC reserves. This valuation premium will be re examined by the market, and the added purchasing power will decrease. In the long run, we should be more optimistic because the risk of a so-called Ponzi scheme explosion is being eliminated. If there is such a large single point explosion, the development of BTC in the future may be restricted. The next round of main uptrend requires a new narrative - it may be sovereign funds, more ETF nationalization, or a breakthrough in some payment layer. In short, MSTR cannot be the only gameplay to support it. Ultimately, it's still BULLISH
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