The recent trend of Da Bing has indeed been very strong. In just five days into May, it surged from 75 to 81, just one step away from the traditional bull bear boundary of the EMA200 daily moving average of 82. It feels like it can cross tonight. According to previous market expectations, it will not be until the end of this year that the bear market will emerge. Personally, I only felt that the bear market was halfway through when I posted on March 9th, but I did not think that the bear market could emerge so quickly. https://(x.com)/Trader_S18/status/2030890242291732844 But the trend of the past few days has forced me to re-examine what stage the cake is in. Although it has been a while since I switched to gold and silver oil because of the small amplitude and unclear main line narrative, the situation in Iran these days is not clear, the news is highly misleading, and Trump is going to visit China and help Walsh to take office again, so the motivation for doing things is insufficient. Apart from yesterday's low-priced purchase of gold and silver, there are no more bands to eat In fact, if we set aside the low expectations caused by the PUA of Da Bing in the past six months, Da Bing did not start early and its rise is not significant compared to the US stock market. After all, in April, the S&P broke through 7000, and many individual stocks and even major players such as Intel went crazy. If we consider Big Pancake as a technology stock, a well-established second tier stock will only start spinning after other tracks have risen to pressure levels or even broken through. Unless it breaks through the previous high in one breath, it will still be a younger brother compared to big technology stocks. From the perspective of the external environment, since the US Iran talks began in mid April, the overall temperature in the Middle East has been cooling down. Although there has been a trend of intensification since yesterday, the overall intensity is far from comparable to March, which is also one of the major factors contributing to the rise of the US stock market The overflow of funds and liquidity brought about by the rise of the US stock market has also flowed into Bitcoin spot through ETFs, while futures buying is gradually becoming active. Especially this week, influenced by the Clarity Act for the Digital Asset Market, both Da Bing and CRCL broke through and caught everyone off guard. Anyway, currently the 82 of Da Bing and the 120 of CRCL are both key positions. If you haven't bought a car at a low price before (such as me, who is obsessed with gold and silver oil), then you won't participate and don't rush to chase after the empty market. Although this position may not be able to break through, it is even more likely to fall down in the future. I don't believe it can turn from bear to bull so quickly. But whether you believe it or not, you can't act impulsively and place orders. You still need to wait for a key signal before going short, otherwise standing guard on the mountaintop for a month and a half will have a significant psychological impact, let alone affecting the utilization rate of funds.