The macro complexity in the second half of the year is stronger, and it is also the frequent switching of macro narratives that the cryptocurrency market fears the most. You will find that the current macro data, over a long period of time, The same set of data can be fed to both bulls and bears simultaneously, This data is interpreted entirely based on market sentiment and preferences. Just the rise in oil prices alone, there have been at least six interpretations this month: Commodity bulls interpreted as inflation trading Gold bulls interpreted as safe haven Short positions in bonds interpreted as term premiums Short positions in US stocks interpreted as pressure on profit margins BTC bulls interpreted as credit damage to fiat currency Fake bears interpreted as liquidity being drained Every angle can present a seemingly reasonable logic, to the point where the market and individual investors cannot distinguish whether the current issue is a bull or a bear. In the second half of the year, oil, CPI, and inflation expectations will continue to rise, making it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Long end interest rates and real interest rate pressures will rise simultaneously, and then oil prices will become pressures on consumer taxes, corporate costs, and profit margins, leading to continued marketing of the declining market.