Phyrex|5月 05, 2026 10:19
I have discussed the probability of filling the gap before. The gap between BTC 79660 and 81210 was created on February 2, 2026, and was completely filled by May 5, 2026. It took me three months to complete the gap. I have conducted statistics and found that the probability of filling the gap within one year is the highest. It is difficult to say if it exceeds one year.
As of now, the short-term shortfall of Bitcoin has been filled, and the remaining:
One is that the gap between $20330 and $21110 on March 10, 2023 has not been filled.
Another issue is that the gap between $9665 and $9850 on July 24, 2020 has not been filled.
I calculated a rough probability myself from the gap data of CME's history using the Bitcoin daily chart.
The filling rate of historical gaps is approximately 96%.
The probability of filling the gap within one week after it occurs is around 57%.
The probability of filling the gap within two weeks after it occurs is around 66%.
The probability of filling the gap within three weeks after it occurs is around 85%.
The probability of filling the gap within one year after it occurs exceeds 90%.
The longest gap in my statistical data was the gap on December 28, 2020, which was not filled until June 13, 2022, taking 18 months to fill.
Although I have always said that filling gaps is mystical, the probability of filling gaps is indeed high.
So for this order, I bought the spot goods at $78000 initially, hoping to fill the gap within three weeks. However, I waited for a whole three months. Based on the current calculation of $80600, the annualized return is 13.3%, which can be considered barely.
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