The Battle of BTC Bull Bear Watershed: Strong Crossfire between Long and Short, Increased Volatility The volatility of BTC on Mondays is always surprisingly exciting, Just yesterday, BTC once again showed a strong trend compared to other commodities, The price surged to 80K in one fell swoop, entering the imbalance zone formed by the decline in early February, Formally entered the range of 'Script 2' that I proposed in mid March High waves cannot last, and success or failure will eventually be determined .. ： // I know you are more interested in the 'trading plan' part, But I have already written all of this sharing in yesterday's analysis post, Interested friends can temporarily move the following link ： https://((((((((((x.com))))))))))/market_beggar/status/2051116573231038974 And today, I plan to quickly share some data with you, as well as some thoughts on the future. Firstly, the "Script 2" that I have repeatedly mentioned over the past month: This is the trend deduction that I first proposed on March 16th this year (as shown in Figure 1), Time flies, and in a blink of an eye, the price quickly returned to above 80K. The possibility analysis of the trend of "Script 2" proposed for the first time: https://((((((((((x.com))))))))))/market_beggar/status/2033359397079101623 If you're wrong, you have to admit it. To be honest, I was actually more inclined towards' Script 1 'at that time, But Mr. Market is always right, and the subsequent 'Script 1' was falsified, In the blink of an eye, BTC has returned to the imbalance zone (80-81K) to fill the gap. // And just after BTC first entered the range of 80-81K yesterday, The fluctuation has shown a very significant amplification, indicating that the long short divergence is rapidly intensifying here (as shown in Figure 2). As this interval is a clear 'large-scale long short divide' (see citation below for details), In addition to being an unbalanced area on the line, it is also a huge accumulation resistance area for URPD, And the location of the average short-term holding cost (STH-RP) of BTC, Therefore, if Mr. Berg is an old friend, he may not be surprised by this sudden fluctuation. The Chu River Han Boundary of Bulls and Bears: Suppression from Short term BTC Holders https://((((((((((x.com))))))))))/market_beggar/status/2048943068414632418 // As shown in Figure 3: The current STH-RP is 78896 Although the price has now surpassed STH-RP, due to the extremely high degree of long short divergence in the current region, Therefore, if you are a friend who trusts STH-RP very much, I tend to leave a few days for observation, After confirming that the resistance in this area has been fully absorbed and the price remains strong, The winning rate of further intervention will be higher. // As shown in Figure 4, let's take a brief look at the distribution of URPD chips. I will share this set of data in the weekly report that is regularly updated every Sunday, Friends who are interested in regular tracking can follow. Bergchain Weekly Report (75): The main reason for the rapid increase in LTH-RP https://((((((((((x.com))))))))))/market_beggar/status/2050807055628509410 Yesterday, BTC officially rose above 80K and entered the thin zone of 80-81K, This means that 'this long-standing thin region is about to be filled', After the URPD vacuum rarefied region is filled, the gravitational force of the gap itself will dissipate, In other words, the probability of the market making a life or death decision and choosing a direction will also increase. URPD gap and periodic distribution https://((((((((((x.com))))))))))/market_beggar/status/1884102421485678734 // Finally, returning to the trading plan: For most friends who cannot monitor the market with high intensity, I would strongly recommend: Do not trade when the price enters a region of strong divergence between long and short positions ❌」。 As mentioned earlier, these areas of strong divergence are often accompanied by significant fluctuations, The process of wide up and down washing precisely makes the leverage attribute of the contract the target destiny, If there are no strict risk control rules, the principal is easily worn down repeatedly at this stage Detailed Discussion on Risk Control and Position Management https://((((((((((x.com))))))))))/market_beggar/status/1892777780993282379 Therefore, I am more inclined to wait for the linear pattern to release more signals and for the fluctuations to begin to slow down, Consider intervening in your own position again, otherwise it is easy to be killed by both long and short positions in the market. Of course, perhaps it's related to my preference for the style of 'left-hand trading', The above are only my personal operating habits and biases, Left and right side transactions are not black and white, there is no right or wrong, for your reference. Trading Concept Supplement (8): Understanding "Trend Structure&Left and Right Side Trading" in One Article https://((((((((((x.com))))))))))/market_beggar/status/1922471701105017070 As for the detailed technical perspective and trading strategy, Interested friends can refer to yesterday's analysis post, and there will be no further elaboration here. The above is today's content, long and short competition, good to leave hands // Related reading resources The Last Trembling Bottom Picking Series (12): Latest Data from the "Four Big Deep Bear Bottom Picking Models" https://((((((((((x.com))))))))))/market_beggar/status/2050029916578820271 Identifying Liquidity: A Brief Discussion on what "Trendline Liquidity" means https://((((((((((x.com))))))))))/market_beggar/status/2036621311276179466 PSIP Bottom Signal "Extra Edition": Another Perspective on Evaluating the Bottom https://((((((((((x.com))))))))))/market_beggar/status/2024313705262121308